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For Monday February 4, 2013 

 

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Dow
 
Nasdaq
     
Dow +149.21 at 14009.79, Nasdaq +36.97 at 3179.10, S&P +15.06 at 1513.17

 

14000  level for the Dow  gave the media a talking point (and a countdown graphic on CNBC) but the price is still at least 150 points below its all time high.  The charts, especially the longer tern ones seen later with parallel channels, still look quite good for further gains though short term the markets are overbought. The volume increases are good and markets can while running get much more overbought but we would prefer at least some consolidation this week and a pullback may even be better. Friday saw strong ISM numbers and good construction spending though the new jobs number was lower than expected. To some extend that is appreciated as the idea is that slower job growth keeps the Fed in its supportive mode.  

 

Before we get to the  charts - a  music video.  

 

The first time the Super Bowl had only a single performer at the halftime show was 20 years ago in 1993 in California. Here is Michael Jackson.

Employment in the U.S. increased by slightly less than expected in the month of January, according to a report released by the Labor Department, although the report also showed notable upward revisions to the job growth in previous months. The report showed that non-farm payroll employment increased by 157,000 jobs in January following an upwardly revised increase of 196,000 jobs in December. Economists had been expecting employment to increase by about 165,000 jobs compared to the addition of 155,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.  graphs -- RTTNews

Despite the continued job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged up to 7.9 percent in January from 7.8 percent in December. The increase surprised economists, who had expected to unemployment rate to dip to 7.7 percent.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rebounded by more than anticipated in the week ended January 26th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday, with jobless claims bouncing off a five-year low. The report showed that initial jobless claims rose to 368,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 330,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to climb to 350,000.

The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 53.1% from 50.2% in December, and above the 51.0% expected by economists. Readings over 50% in the ISM diffusion index indicate that more firms are growing than contracting.  

Construction spending increased 0.9 percent to an annual rate of $885 billion, the Commerce Department said.on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6 percent gain. The data showed America's private sector picking up the slack from a shift toward government austerity. 

The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 55.6% in January, to mark the best performance in nine months. Economists surveyed had expected the Chicago PMI to edge up to 49.8%. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. 

For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by each of the five major stock market indexes. For example, the Dow peaked at 14,164.53 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 6,547.05 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the Dow is 13,954.42 -- it has retraced 97.2% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, each of these five major stock market indices have retraced over 90% of their financial crisis decline. However, it is the S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks), the tech-laden Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) that have recouped all the losses incurred during the financial crisis and currently trade higher than their 2007 credit bubble peak.

First This past week's  sectors.

 

This past week's indices  -   

The trading month is only one day old and the Dow is already up 1% with a close above 14,000 putting it just 190 points away from its all-time high. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are up as well and only the Russell 2000 is touching its top Bollinger band, so even more overbought than the others. Oil is resting right at possible support while gold is sitting under the ctr., Bollinger band.

The 60 min. chart shows the setup for the end of week rally as the pullback started on Wednesday, hitting the lower Bollinger bands on Thursday and then the jump back up to the top bands, as they expanded on Friday. 

Closing in on horizontal resistance now the Dow has had a great move since the 2009 low. 

On the daily chart we see that the volume was lower on pullback days Wednesday and Thursday, and then the increasing  as it ran back up. RSI is still above 70 and the Williams indicator quite extreme. 

This Dow chart was from the  first newsletter of the year showing the possible short term objectives as it had closed over our zero line. The top channel shown was near 1400 with intermediate resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci projection. These projections were reached.

In this variant we have Fibonacci projections based from the summer highs to autumn lows and parallel channels with the first one being reached on Friday at this127.2% Fibonacci level. There is another parallel line just above and beyond that, if this rally were to continue, is the 161.8% projection at 14,486. At the moment. RSI is at 72, so short term over bought. 

This Dow futures chart had a very short term projection for trading late in the week and the close on Friday brought it up to the 127.2% with an additional short term level up closer to 14,000. 

The utility average has been up four days in a row and is approaching the downtrend line resistance. RSI is nearing 70 and the volume has been dropping off. 

Last week, the transportation averages totally above the top Bollinger band. So this week consolidated with a minor decline. 

The NASDAQ summation index is still on a buy but note there was a dip  close to a crossover before the move back up on Friday. 

The number of new highs on the NASDAQ continued to expand this week just not in as rapid a pace as it had done the week prior. 

The NASDAQ has yet to break above the 2012 highs, though it is nearing it and if successful we show  the Fibonacci level at 3300. 

The NASDAQ weekly had basically been tracking that blue trendline and finally with this week's almost 1% gain, it was able to break above. 

The 60 min. NASDAQ chart shows the slowness of  its advance then the pop on Friday  as it nears the top horizontal resistance. 

The NASDAQ 100 futures still sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci level but have not yet broken out to move to the next level at 2797. 

Our mechanical chart for the NASDAQ 100 ETF has been long since the start of January and remains so. 

On the 60 min. chart this ETF did break above the top line but not above the high of the year. 

The volatility index this week remains under 13 near its low. 

We have been talking about the move to 420 for the semiconductor index since the close above the 50 week EMA and it made it this week so would not be surprised to see some consolidation before and attempt for a breakout. 

The NYSE in the top of the chart continued its very steep ascent while the moving average of new highs minus new lows also picked up and then fell back a bit  at the end of the week. 

At the close Friday 85% of stocks on the NYSE were trading above their 50 day moving average. 

The dip this week brought the bullish percent indicator close to the exponential moving average but did not crossover for a sell so it is still on a long since late in November. 

The S&P 500 is now about 83 points since the last lazy chart buy. 

It is now five weeks in a row that the S&P  500 has advanced and the last time it did this last summer it then dipped for two weeks. 

The daily chart shows that Friday was the biggest expansion move of the week and the volume though above average was not the highest for the week.

The S&P 500 closed at this 127.2% Fibonacci level and a valid top trendline though it is just under the parallel channel line which is now closer to 1540. RSI is now at 70 but it is not unusual for to go a bit above before pulling back. 

The 60 min. chart of the S&P 500 shows it still basically hanging around the top trendline. It has some small negative divergence showing in the RSI 

The 15 min. chart also displays some negative divergence and it closed under this top trendline resistance. 

The 15 min. mechanical chart from our stockcharts public page shows the trades since 18 January with four buys and three sells. 

The ultra long ETF for the S&P 500 had its moving averages dip closer together late this week but been separated for the rally. 

The Russell 2000 here showing these Fibonacci projections based on the movement between the summer highs and the autumn lows and now closed over the 127.2% projection and at the top of this parallel channel. This then would be a great spot for it to consolidate or perhaps pullback towards the breakout line before an advance and a try for the 161.8% at 935. RSI had run up over 70 and closed just under it on Friday. 

The small caps looked like they  might start underperforming the large caps but had a good 1% move Friday on a gap up and is now over the shorter-term 161.8% we have been showing since the breakout at the start of the year. There is a higher level which  basically corresponds to the  161.8% at on this chart at about 933. 

A really rather relentless move since mid November for the Russell 2000 shown on the 60 min. chart with a pretty definite trendline, which is now just getting close to 900.  

The 3X ETF for the Russell 2000 ran up to it's very short term 127.2% but remained over this breakout area and has a 161.8% at $80.50. 

The Value Line arithmetic index just barely beat out the Russell 2000 in its gains from the November 19 lows. The Value Line is now up 13.79% since then while the Russell 2000 is up 13.75% Meanwhile the S&P 500 and Dow are only up about 8%. since that time. 

The 30 year treasury bond prices are getting near to our measured move projection so only about one point lower and we should see a bounce. 

The BKX banking index is been quite wimpy since the first move up. So the last month we saw no big breakouts and we were expecting one and it finally came on Friday as the index gained 1.67%. It does have a 161.8% Fibonacci projection at 55.55 

In the previous week the retail sector had a super gain but left a tall candle wick which often indicates the next candle will be one of consolidation or pullback and that's what happened as it declined about .43% this week. 

The emerging markets ETF has been making a nice little flag holding above the $44 support and ended the week with higher volume  which could lead to a breakout of this flag. 

The Dow Jones world market had former resistance at the high of 2011 of 274.33 and this week ran  within $.18 of that level. 

The London financial times index added an additional 1% this week in its fifth week of gains 

The Shanghai stock exchange index has been hot since it moved back over the 2000 level and it's test of its former low. A break above the 50 week EMA added further momentum and this week it added 5.5% on its way to test the 200 week EMA at 2512. 

The commodities ETF that last week had just been wimpy sitting on top of the breakout line, finally had a big move of over 2% and closed pennies above the 200 week EMA. 

Oil was up 1.6% closing at this four year downtrend line. 

Oil shows some shorter-term resistance both at the horizontal dotted line near 100 and then also at an almost 2 year trendline  now around 105. 

Natural gas made no big moves though there was and over sold buy as RSI moved back above 30 and this small intra week rally. 

Gold was up Tuesday and Wednesday dropping Thursday with just a minor rebound on Friday. 

GLD Shows some increased by side volume in two of the last three weeks, but pricewise still sits between the center and lower Bollinger bands. 

The gold miners ETF bounced only slightly but it did have decent volume and has held above this trendline. 

On Friday there was us little gain on the gold miners ETF shown on our mechanical chart which has been on the sell side this year. 

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Silver has improved a bit the last two months and it is closed still just slightly under the 20 week moving average. So there is still a possibility that these two small candles could become a bear flag.  

The mechanical chart for silver however remains on a long and has been quite un interesting so far this year. 

Copper after a three-week rest just above the trendline had a surge of interest running it up 3% this week.  

Palladium has been hot since late October and continued its strong move this week adding an additional 2%. 

The euro has also been strong since RSI lows in the late summer and the previous week's close over the 200 week EMA. This week it gained over 1%. 

Here is a similar chart showing the euro futures and the close over the 50% retracement towards the much longer-term highs. 

The US dollar closed $.10 above the December lows and if that support is broken we could see a bounce for the third time near 78.60. 

 

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Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

This week's economic calendar for the USA. 

Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

Global Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

Or for more information fill in form - click below/p>

 

If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here http://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

MuslePharm http://www.musclepharm.com/

MusclePharm headquartered in Denver, Colorado develops, manufactures and distributes a range of nutritional supplements aimed especially toward athletes but this sector is growing rapidly toward the general public with active lifestyles who want to maintain general fitness.  You do not just find their products in gyms and sports stores but also in GNCs. Wal-Mart's and even Amazon.  Big sales come from BodyBuilding.com where they list thousands of users reviews.

 

The company has done an excellent job of expanding with their first 9 months of 2012 reported total net sales of $50 million and expected year of about  $70 million. At the last SEC filing they still reported a significant net loss as they retired many warrants and existing debt. These charges are expected to drop in the following quarters. They have done much to increase product awareness and I think this will lead to market awareness as well. Check their SEC filing and their have been several articles on the company published on Seeking Alpha. Dates - December 5 MusclePharm: A Fast Growing Sports Nutrition Company December 12  MusclePharm: An Overlooked Value Investment In The Booming Supplement Industry January 28 Opko's Billionaire CEO Invests In MusclePharm

We were talking about this stock in the chat room on Thursday as technically the chart looked ready to break out and it did and ran up over 14% on Friday. MSLP ran up 50% this week as it was reported that  billionaire Dr. Phillip Frost invested $1.4 million in the company. The chart reflects the 850-1 reverse spit that took place on November 26, 2012.


When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

 

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Wintertones  - a coldtime metallophonic journey. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

 

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.   There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

ANAD    Over $2.71

BBT    Over $31.36

EFII     Over $22.78 - $23.00

FIVE    Over $37.40

EXAS   Over $11.50

LVLT    Over $24.92

UTX  Over $90.11

 

 

For your eyes and mind  - 

Photograph by Boris Bortp

 

Photograph by Danny Vangenechtene 

 

 

Photograph by Igor Butiyarnov

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week. 

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Check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

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