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For Monday March 5, 2012


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Dow
 
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Dow -3.18 at 12977.12, Nasdaq -12.78 at 2976.19, S&P -4.47 at 1369.62

 

Gold dropped on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was giving a testimony for Congress and some expected talk or hints of a possible easing or to QE3 but he gave no signs of additional stimulus. Some think this may have been intentional to lessen the worries of inflation. As a result on the day gold dropped  100 points in heavy volume. Meanwhile, the dollar, which had been at support, rallied and continued the next two days. Copper however  remains healthy looking as does palladium and platinum and if the economy is improving, this should just be a plus really for equities. The small caps this past week dropped more than the others and actually they have not run as close to last year's high as the Dow or S&P 500 and NASDAQ. This weakness in the small caps may be signaling a pullback or consolidation in the broad market in the days or weeks to come. We have still had decent stock movement but not nearly as many breakouts and continuations each day as we did the first six weeks of the year. Obviously we didn't expect this to continue for months on end and if this bull market continues, at this point a good pullback would be healthy. On the the 60 min charts we see some Bollinger bands tightening which will lead to some expansion move up or down  this week. Before we get to the charts some interesting music.
 

 

Hang Drum and Tongue Drum "Hang Tongue"

You probably already know about a hang drum - the metal one in this video but may have not heard the other. The makers of this tongue drum www.boxedmusicdrums.com write, "A Tongue Drum  is a serious musical instrument that's fun to play and great to look at. We start with exotic woods with unique grains specifically seeking out knots and wormholes that occur naturally to add character." In this video the performer first recoded the tongue drum then did the overdub on the hang drum. There is another Tongue Drum video named  Night Moves  using a Tongue Drum made by http://www.tonguedrum.com

 

 

So you know how cool Google is - did you know you can play PacMan whenever you want? Just use your arrow keys to navigate   http://www.google.com/pacman/  welcome to 1980

 

 

U.S. durable goods orders fell for the first time in the last four months in January, according to figures released by the Commerce Department. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped $8.6 billion to $206.1 billion, a 4 percent drop from December levels. he drop, following strong increases in December and November - 3.2 percent and 4.2 percent respectively - was generally expected. However, most economists had forecast a rather less severe decline of 0.7 percent.          graphs - RTTNews

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index jumped to 70.8 from 61.5 in January. Economists, who had been expecting the number to hit 63, were caught offguard. The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said February's confidence level was the highest since the same month a year ago, when the index came in at 72.The consumer confidence index fell 3.7 points to 61.1 in January.

Estimates of the growth of the U.S. economy were revised up for the fourth quarter of 2011, though the overall yearly growth lagged well behind 2010 levels according to figures released by the Commerce Department. Real gross domestic product for the fourth quarter was revised up to 3 percent, up 0.2 percent from the 2.8 percent growth initially reported. The revision proved higher than most economists had predicted, foreseeing no revision from the 2.8 percent growth initially reported, but the revised 3 percent growth still fell short of the 3.1 percent growth most economists had hoped to see before the first release of GDP figures for the fourth quarter.

irst-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits showed an unexpected decrease in the week ended February 25th, according to a report released by the Labor Department, with claims at their lowest level in almost four years. The report showed that initial jobless claims edged down to 351,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 353,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to creep up to 355,000 from the 351,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the drop compared to the previous week's revised figure, jobless claims are at their lowest level since coming at 347,000 in the week ended March 8, 2008.

U.S. personal income and consumer spending both increased by a smaller margin than expected in January according to figures released by the Commerce Department. Personal income increased by $37.4 billion or 0.3 percent in January, a slowing down from the growth of 0.5 percent in December. Most economists had forecast the rate of income growth to hold steady at 0.5 percent.

The ISM manufacturing index slipped a bit, falling to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in January. Not only did February represent the first decline in the index since October, but the headline number was softer than the market’s expectation. That said, the index remains well within expansion territory.

For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by each of the five major stock market indexes. For example, the Dow peaked at 14,164.53 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 6,547.05 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the Dow is 12,980.30 -- it has retraced 84.5% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, each of these five major stock market indices have retraced over 78% of their financial crisis decline. However, it is the S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks) and the tech-laden Nasdaq that have recouped all the losses incurred during the financial crisis and currently trade higher than their 2007 credit bubble peak.

This past week's top  sectors.

 

This past week's indices  - the small caps clearly underperformed.

With only two days of trading from March the charts can't tell us much about this month but you can see even though the Dow is 100 points above the 2011 high, there is no visual appearance of breakout. The NASDAQ has made new multi-year highs while the S&P 500 sits right at resistance. In this respect the Russell 2000 is the laggard and a good distance away from its all-time high. A valid near course target in all these cases could be the upper Bollinger band though the markets could really use a pullback if it wants to build the strength to try for those levels.

On this 60 min chart it has seemed that week after week we have shown the dip to the lower Bollinger bands for a buy and then the rise to the top bands for a good profit. This week there was a rise from near the lower bands on Monday making it to the top bands but the volatility has lessened and now the bands are quite tight except for the Russell 2000 which pulled back the most. Tightening  Bollinger bands proceed some larger move so it is likely that later this week we will see a day or two with a larger range than in the last weeks.

The line here on the weekly Dow chart is basic near-term support. So a drop to 12,750 12,850 would just be normal consolidation.

We can't say that this dotted line is much of a valid trendline as after being flat almost 10 days of course it would work its  way outside. It does show the lack of much vertical movement for the last couple of weeks and the tightening Bollinger band. Actually the histogram has been negative for most of February and the MACD is in decline.

A two day per bar Dow futures chart does not really show any pending decline at the moment and here we see the 127.2% Fibonacci projection just over 13,300.

On Friday as the Dow futures hit the lower trendline on this 60 min. chart we posted it as it would be a typical buying point with a stop close underneath. It turned out to be okay for a move up about 65 points.

The transports had a nice gain on Thursday but lost it on Friday. It is stuck between the 20 day moving average and 50 day EMA and here we show a possible bearish flag and to the lower levels of support if it breaks down.

Although the NASDAQ itself has not declined the NASDAQ summation index continues lower after it's sell signal the previous week.

The Moving average of the number of new highs on the NASDAQ fas declined further though the number have lows has not yet expanded. This is a caution but not a big worry at the moment.

The weekly NASDAQ chart shows the small gain this week above the resistance line which may now be support.

The 60 min NASDAQ chart with in a parallel channel and the moving averages are still on the bullish side but watch for possible crossover on a pullback.

A two day per bar NASDAQ 100 chart has a candle, which often precedes a top. As this candle is two days combined. I am not sure that it still holds that significance. The Fibonacci levels showed the next higher resistance level and support on a small pullback.

A popular ultra ETF for trading the NASDAQ 100 within  a parallel channel but watch the moving averages for possible crossover on decline or for break of the lower trendline.

The semiconductor index lost less than 1% this week closing right at the up trend line.

The volatility index closed the week at 17.29. Still not much fear for the market.

The NYSE on top with not much change for the week nor is the moving average of the number of new highs minus new lows area

75% of stocks on the NYSE are now trading over their 50 day moving average, which is less than the preceding week. Notice that the number has now crossed back under our red line, which often precedes a move lower

.

For this S&P 500 chart to be a negative we like to see the bullish percent index below the five. EMA. This at the close on Friday it was actually nine cents below 5 day EMA. Maybe not so much as to swing to the sell side, but a warning just the same

Our  S&P 500 lazy chart is unhanged. This is up 161 points since the last buy so you may wish to set some stops if you feel there'll be a pullback as an official sell signal would not come until the price crossed back under the 20 week EMA.

On this 60 min chart you see that the S&P 500 was forced out of its parallel channel by merely going almost sideways. There is now some support at the green line below if it moves lower. Note that on a large pullback the 38.2% retrace is also at a level where it had previously found pretty good support.

The S&P 30 min renko chart shows that it found some support on Friday at the lower line of this parallel channel it is been in for a couple of weeks.

S&P  futures ran to the 161.8% ST fib level.

This shorter time frame S&P 500 has pretty clear support and resistance trendlines now and it overhead short term projection level.

This ultra long ETF for the S&P 500 is still within a parallel channel but note that on  a decline there would likely be a crossover sell signal.

If you sold the SSO you could buy the ultra short on  crossover and break above this declining parallel channel.

Here we see the break out of range of the Russell 2000 as a small caps have really been underperforming the broad market. Often this is a warning that the general market will do the same. Do note that earlier there was the crossovers of the RSI and MACD with a negative histogram and this week we saw the drop in the top Williams indicator. Support may now be found at the 50 day EMA in blue which will soon be at the green trendline.

 

This 60 min. Russell 2000 shows the break from horizontal resistance to support and actually the drop from RSI 70 when it got to its measured move at the beginning of February.

The banking index remains pretty flat. So this does not yet suggest a problem in the sector.

Comments this week from the fed for many suggested that there won't be some additional QE3 and that the fear of large inflation is diminishing. This dropped the price of gold quickly but you see the 10 year treasury note yield closed still over the 50 day EMA.

Last week the retail sector dropped and  this week it made up most of those losses.

The FTSE dropped only half of percent this week.

The Dow Jones world market index closed still under the trendline.

Though the  Shanghai stock exchange gained 0.8% for the week. Which is still positive.

Commodities had dropped this week, but by the close on Friday they were only down 1.4%.

Two weeks ago oil broke out over resistance and this week consolidated testing those levels but on higher volume.

Because it also was a down trend line breakout this supports the idea of further upside to come and this trendline should now be support.

Here the April crude oil futures and the short term Fibonacci projections as well as overall Fibonacci retracement levels.

Natural gas which had made gains for two weeks lost 8% this week, but remained above that $2.40 possible support level.

This daily gold chart shows that long the red candle on the fed speak day when it dropped

.

This closer view show is the two day rebound and although it closed back over the 50 day EMA it could drop again even after some possible rally. If it dropped from this level. We show a measured move if it were an A-B-C decline and you  can see it could actually drop below the 200 day EMA at 1648.

This is a two day per bar April gold futures chart and the retrace levels.

This gold futures chart we had live on our chart sharing page which is open during normal market hours. This caught the drop from the parallel channel near 1778 for almost a 90 point drop. Another trade opportunity was when it bounced back up to the broken trendline. It now has at least some pretty well defined short term trading trendlines.

Last week we posted this chart and that received a note from some from someone saying they could see it was pretty clear that they would be a good pullback as it looked to them pretty strong resistance at the top of this channel. It worked out that way. As this ETF lost 3% on increasing volume  but managed to closed back over the Center Bollinger band.

This closer daily view of the ETF shows the close at the 50 day EMA and also a possible measured move. If the starting point were here. Though gold could surprise and rally from this level, but with so much volume  on the selloff day one would think it will continue.

The mechanical GDX renko chart shifted to a sell this week.

This silver monthly chart shows last month close just under this green resistance line as it stayed there this week as well.

The March silver futures had run right up to the 61.8% retrace level and RSI over 70 before it declined so once again these marked the short term high.

The SLV mechanical trade then also shifted to a sell this week after a super run on the long side.

Copper pullback Tuesday and Wednesday only to recover Thursday and Friday.

Platinum also dipped a little and recovered much of that by the close.

The euro futures are now in a descending parallel channel and we are showing the short term Fibonacci retracements on the right and longer term retracements on the left

Last week we showed the US dollar likely to have support at the 200 day EMA in red and it did just that rallying after testing that area and having the Williams indicator above go from below 80 line to over.

The daily US dollar futures chart shows that test of the 200 day and suppers subsequent nice move this week as Williams crossed back over 80.

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Political - skip if not interested

Peace in the world comes from peaceful acts and thoughts and free trade and not from sanctions and war. Only one presidential candidate understands and promotes this important idea.

22 years ago this month, Voyager 1, about 4 billion miles away, turned around and took its last photo of Earth. Carl Sagan wrote this about that photo, putting everything in perspective. Stop the killing, be the change.

Be a model of peace.

Ron Paul for President 

The only logical and honest choice for 2012 to help fix the broken governmental system and stop the reckless wars that all the other candidates want to continue.

  


This week's economic calendar for the USA. 
 


Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

Global Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

Or for more information fill in form - click below

 

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here http://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

 

 

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Sounding the Deep - the psychoacoustic world of resonant bronze. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.  Al the additions today are from the S&P 500. There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

 

CMCSK   Over $28.98 or small short on break

CPN    Over $15.75

KERX    Over $3.74

NCT     Over $5.80

PMT   Over $18.46

RMD    Over $30.20

SRZ    Over $8.38  or short under  $7.58

VNR    Over $28.36

VRA   Over $38.23

WIN   Short under $12.00

For your eyes and mind  - 

 

Photograph by Konstantine Mironov

 

 

Photograph by Sergey Leonidchenko

 

 

 

Photograph by Denis Bodrov

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week. 

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