Election week so if eligible to vote - please do it. 57% of eligible voters actually voted in the 2008 presidential elections which means that 43% did not even participate. This was a short trading week with the US market6s closed on Monday and Tuesday because of the Hurricane Sandy storm. We started the 3 days of trading on the upside into the early Friday trade but then gave much of it back by the close on Friday ending flat for the week. One exception was for the S&P 400 Mid Caps which closed up 1.34% this week - reversing the previous week's drop. That is actually a positive for the broad market but in the short term the market still running on caution. Some would prefer to see a stronger washout before trying for new highs and we may yet see that. Some indices broke some short term support during the decline over the last month but longer term uptrends are still in fine shape. The number of new lows has been expanding which is  not bullish but they are still not suggesting a bear market ahead. The move up on Thursday was encouraging but losing the gains on Friday was not and we would not be surprised to see further weakness this week.

If you trade with intrade you see the current prices on the presidential election.

It is interesting as many national polls show a very tight race but with intrade, where people are placing bets using real money, Obama leads by 2 to 1. Last week Obama closed at $6.28 and this week at $6.71 for a gain of over 7% .He was helped by his high approval of work on the hurricane Sandy tragedy. For the last week of trading Romney - dropped from $3.70 to $3.28 for a loss of 12%. Unlike stocks - this trade hopefully ends this week. We say hopefully as there is a possibility of a delay in election results from some very close states.

Before the first debate the Romney bet dropped from 44 to about 20 as he talked about the 47% he did not care about. But, regardless of the reason, anyone watching the RSI would have seen it drop under 70 for a sell or short sell. Then RSI ran under 30 and over for a buy and later dropped again under 70.  This week the price when lower as people recalled how Romney has stated that he wants to do away with FEMA and the roll from the national government. Also hurting the price were and the totally false statements by him about Chrysler Jeep wanting to move all production to China.

Lately President Obama trade dipped to 55, RSI then moved back over 30 and the price has risen to over 65. The praise for President Obama  from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie on his handling of Hurricane Sandy has helped the price. We have not drawn trend lines or Fibonacci levels on these charts but you can see that technical analysis works even for trading candidates regardless of any news.

For the last time -  the market gains since the President took office in 2009. Has been a beautiful time for stocks.

Before we get to the charts - a video.

Flight Safety  How often have you been flying and not really paying much attention when they run the video and do the demonstration about fastening your seatbelts and putting up your tray tables? Air New Zealand is know for its creative safety films. In 2009 they produced one with the crew wearing body paint named Bare Essentials of Safety.  In 2011 they had one dressed all in blacks.  The latest one is Hobbit themed and features Gollum. After all the airline calls itself "the airline of Middle-earth".

Employment in the U.S. increased by more than economists had anticipated in the month of October, according to a report released by the Labor Department, although the report also showed an uptick by the unemployment rate. The report said non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 jobs in October following an upwardly revised increase of 148,000 jobs in September. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 125,000 jobs compared to the increase of 114,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Despite the continued job growth, the unemployment rate edged up to 7.9 percent in October from 7.8 percent in September due to an increase by the size of the workforce. The modest increase by the unemployment rate matched economist estimates.  Graphs -  RTTNews

Employment in the U.S. private sector rose by more than economists had expected in the month of October, according to a report released by private payroll processor Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP said private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs in October compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 135,000 jobs.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased in the week ended October 27th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 363,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The drop surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 369,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the decrease, jobless claims pulled back further off the nearly four-month high set in the week ended October 13th, although claims remain above the over four-year low set in the week ended October 6th. Additionally, the Labor Department released its preliminary third quarter productivity report, which showed that non-farm productivity rose 1.9 percent sequentially, while unit labor costs edged down 0.1 percent.

Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in September by the largest amount in nearly three years, reflecting a rebound in aircraft orders.

U.S. companies boosted their orders for manufactured goods by the largest amount in 18 months in September. Factory orders rose 4.8 percent in September compared to August, a month when orders had fallen 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday. The September gain was the biggest since March 2011 and was driven by a surge in demand for commercial aircraft, a volatile category which had seen orders plunge in August. Demand for core capital goods, viewed as a good proxy for business investment plans, edged up a slight 0.2 percent in September following a 0.3 percent rise in August. The two modest gains followed two months of huge declines as business investment remains weak. 

American manufacturers grew at slightly faster pace in October as orders showed marked improvement, according to a closely followed survey. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of purchasing managers — the executives who order raw materials and other goods — edged up to 51.7% from 51.5% in September and a three-year-low of 49.6% in August. The ISM report exceeded Wall Street expectations. Economists had forecast the index to fall to 50.5%. A reading above 50% signals expansion. The latest report appears to suggest that the manufacturing sector has stabilized after a bout of weakness that set in at the end of spring. 

The consumer confidence index rose to 70.3 in September from 61.3 in August, with the improvement primarily stemming from an optimistic outlook for the job market. Consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose to 18.5 percent from 15.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs fell to 18.5 percent from 23.7 percent. 

Crude oil stockpiles rose by 5.9 million barrels to 375.1 million barrels in the week ended October 19th. Inventories remained above the upper limit of the average range. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels yet remained in the lower half of the average range. Meanwhile, distillate inventories edged down 0.6 million barrels, remaining in the lower half of the average range. Refinery capacity utilization averaged 87.4 percent over the four weeks ended October 19th compared to 87.4 percent for the four-weeks ended October 12th. 

For some perspective on the current state of the labor market, today's chart illustrates the unemployment rate since 1948. As today's chart illustrates, the unemployment rate has been trending lower since peaking at 10% back in October 2009. While the overall downtrend of the unemployment rate is positive, it is worth noting that the current unemployment rate remains at a level that has rarely been surpassed during the post-World War II era.

This past week's   sectors.

This past week's indices  -   

With only two days of trading so far in this new month the four major stock indices shown are flat, so far. The possible negative, however, is that there was a nice rally on Thursday and it was all given back on Friday. Maybe it is just some Pre election jitters but the close for the week did not add to bullishness. Oil and gold both  lost ground so far this month. Gold remains verr its center Bollinger band  while oil looks like it may head back to the lower band or at least to test the recent lows.  

On the 60 min. multi-index chart we see how tight the Bollinger bands were becoming with the market being closed a couple of days and then we see how they greatly expanded on the Thursday breakout. The run took them over the top Bollinger bands so a small pullback would have been okay but they have closed back under their center bands on Friday.

For the week the Dow lost 14 points closing again under the 20 week MA. The week was a short one so of course correspondingly the  volume was also low. If it does drop below last week's low watch for a test of the 50 week EMA at 12,836.

This very short term mechanical 10 min. chart for the Dow shows the strength lasted until about half past noon on Friday and then  it was a continual stair stepdown into the close.down into the close.

We posted a chart before the open on Friday of the Dow futures showing these Fibonacci projection levels at 127.2% and 161.8%. Then shortly after the open we posted this  particular chart showing that the short term 161.8% was reached giving caution as it is often is a high, at least short term  and a possible pullback point area.

.

This view of the Dow futures is at the market close on Friday showing the drop of over 200 points from the morning call. This is why we respect Fibonacci levels as being helpful.

The Dow Jones utility average last week closed above the green line horizontal support but  this week it  fell below that and  the blue trendline and is very close to testing the 200 day EMA.

Interestingly the Dow Jones transportation average closed up over 1% this week and over the 50 week EMA.

The NASDAQ summation index now into its third calendar month since the sell signal in September and no change yet perceivable in this chart.

The NASDAQ highs minus lows index dropped under the lower trendline support and although the NASDAQ price itself held the green trendline. The increase in new lows is not bullish.

Here is the moving average of number of new highs and though they have dropped they are above the late summer lows.

The NASDAQ itself lost just over five points for the week closing near the 50 week EMA and trendline shown in blue. It has further support at the 38.2% retrace around 2764.

The NASDAQ 60 min. chart as it closed above this 61.8% Fibonacci level and though we have not drawn a downtrend line, you can picture one and a possible break to the upside with the movement closer to 3050.

We have shown this NASDAQ 100 chart in daily videos just pointing out the support at or between these two blue lines closer is the 200 day EMA at 2634.

Our mechanical NASDAQ 100 ETF went short in late September and remains so having produced some nice gains, especially in the last two trades since July.

Here the NASDAQ 100 futures hovering around the 38.2% retracement level from the June lows.

Amazon has fallen off from its September highs but watch this pattern as it could be a bull flag forming so at least pay attention to possible breakout at some point. This is true even if it moves from a lower price level as long as it holds this parallel channel.

Apple has retreated almost back to the July lows so expect to see at least a an attempt to hold that level if not it could retreat all the way back to the May lows.

On this view we see the close was under the 200 day EMA and you can note the Fibonacci levels underneath. To the left  the volume at price bars showing that this level is where the most volume occurred within this price range. Often this means more defense of price at that area and possibilities of a bounce. RSI has just slightly closed under 30 which is sufficient for a bounce though we like it if it can stay a bit longer under that level. You see this is and a parallel channel as well and longer-term a move could come closer to the 50% retracement which would intersect if done quickly. I think it's more likely that we will see an attempted bounce soon or at the 38.2% and that will help determine further movement. 

The volatility index had a 1.50 range on Friday with the lower open but the markets move down caused it to  close up at  about 17 this week.

The number of new lows on the NYSE has been creeping up but when you look at the moving average of new highs minus new lows you see the late week bounce brought that moving average back above the late summer lows.

The percentage of stocks on the NYSE  now trading over their 50 day average is just under 50%.

Our S&P 500 bullish percent indicator came close to a buy signal as the index also almost made it over the 20 day moving average of the week but it ended the week with it still on a sell.

Our lazy trading S&P 500 chart came close  to ending the week under the 20 week moving average and therefore a sell but at the moment it is still right at that line. Even if it were to close under at this moment it is still 54 points above the last buy signal.

The weekly chart looks similar to the Dow, though it has closed again above the 20 week moving average.

On this chart we see the Thursday rally brought the S&P 500 to close just at the 13 day EMA that we have been using on this chart and  Friday took it to the 34 day EMA from where it started the drop wiping out most of Thursday's gains. The MACD has not yet crossed over bullishly though the histogram has improved a bit.

On this 60 min. chart we have three horizontal lines of support/resistance.

Here is a 15 min. view with the RSI had a double dip below the 70 level before the larger drop began. The RSI now is back under 30 on this short term chart.

Our 15 min. mechanical trading chart from our stockcharts public page have had some whipsaws, but Thursday gave significant gains and Friday gave back some of those but added some profits on the short side.

The S&P 500 futures before the market open on Friday had almost made it to test the recent high and R1 pivot for the day at 1432, but there like the Dow it began its pullback which took it almost back to a trendline shown with the dotted lines.

The Russell 2000 ran up both Wednesday and Thursday  and it looked positive closing back over the 50 day EMA. It then proceeded to give back most of those two days dropping 1.6% on Friday. It is fortunately still at the moment above this congestion area to the left but you don't want to lose that support. The histogram is looking better and the MACD is not that far from a bullish crossover but we would need to see a move pretty quickly.

On the 60 min. chart the Russell ran almost to that top descending trendline before the move back down but it is still above the lower support line.

Like we showed with the Dow, here the Friday 10 min. mechanical chart and its decline happened sooner than the Dow as it began to drop quickly in the morning and fell all day long.

This3-X Russell 2000 ETF from our live trading page hit this gap resistance first thing in the morning on Friday as  RSI went over 70. It then dropped under 70 and the prices fell making a good trade short if you were using RSI and watching the chart.

The Value Line index also lost 1% on Friday, but did not give up all of the move from Wednesday and Thursday. It managed to close over the 50 day EMA so we could see a reversal again back up.

The 30 year treasury bond prices in a tighter range lately. As they consolidate within a kind of a triangle one would expect a break out or breakdown move within the next month.

The banking sector showed a nice rally on Thursday, putting it up to the 20 day moving average and slightly over this small trendline shown though it lost some on Friday going back to the second trendline.

The retail sector ETF actually was up a few cents this week.

The Dow Jones world stock index also gained 0..5% for the week.

The FTSE is forming a bit of a triangle as each week becomes a little bit narrower and it closed up 1% for the week.

The Canadian Venture exchange was also up this week.

It is also a positive thing that the Shanghai stock exchange was up 2.4% this week.  It is still under is resistance shown but a breakout to the upside should be helpful for the US market as well.

Our commodity tracking ETF dropped another 2% this week and it is getting closer to testing that December low near that redline that has not been  extended to the right. In December that was the start of a very nice rally so it will be a an important area to watch this week.

Crude oil lost 1.6% as well though it had been under the 200 week EMA last week so not surprisingly that continued lower. Its lower Bollinger band is now at $81.

The crude oil futures shows that the close on this daily chart was still slightly above the recent lows. So it could try and hold this area as a drop under could take it down to the 78.6% level quite easily.

Natural gas was down 4.75% this week and about to test the formerly broken trendline and if that doesn't hold we have horizontal support as well closer to  $3.28.. Note that in this run the Williams indicator did go up to the 20 line as RSI touched 70. The next run whenever it commences could take it up to the 200 week EMA in red.

We posted this natural gas futures chart on Friday afternoon as it had gone down to the 61.8% retrace level which also happen to be right at the lower parallel channel trendline which would make it a likely bounce point at least for a try. There was no big try there but you can see that the sellers were also really hesitant to drop it lower at that point.If it can hold that it is a possible buy point as your stop could be quite close. RSI is now at 20 so quite short term oversold.

The 3-X ETF for natural gas has pulled back past the 38.2% retrace from that original April buy low and has a 50% at $29.62. Later in the month the lower trendline will intersect the 61.8% retrace so if weakness continues that will definitely be a point to keep in mind. This has been an incredible moneymaker but taking buy points that are close to possible exit points are important so that stops can be close in case support levels do not hold.

Gold was down almost 2% this week closing five points above its 20 week moving average. Just below that it has its 50 week moving average and still further under that the  trendline it broke out of in August. These areas will be watched also for indications of a bounce.

On the daily chart you see the bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci level ran up to the 50 day EMA in what was suspiciously  looking like a bear flag and it proved out to be as it had this 2% drop on Friday taking it almost to the 50% retracement level.

Gold miners ETF closed slightly under the 50 week EMA and may test its 20 week moving average at $48.

On the 60 min. chart note the close on Friday was just a bit under the recent low of $49.98. We see the trendline situated roughly around 49 so watch if it touches there for possible short term bounce as well.

Our mechanical trading GDX which is now short dropped over two dollars on Friday.

Silver shown here with the ETF dropped below its 50 week EMA closing above its 20 week moving average and below that near $27.50 is a significant up trend support line.

The mechanical trade for SLV has been short since mid-October and so far has been profitable.

Copper is retreated down to its 200 week EMA and also the top trendline so it definitely could bounce here. If it drops below the 200 day expect a test of the lower trendline.

The euro came quite close to the first horizontal blue trendline but when it tried to rally back up could not come too close so lost it strengths and has begun a pullback. It would need the reverse right here because if not were going to see it at least at the 20 week moving average where it also has some horizontal support.

The euro futures had a decent enough looking flag consolidating around the 38.2% retracement level but on Friday it closed below this small trendline. It does still have some horizontal support but we think it favors going lower.

And talk of the euro going lower it generally is inverse to the dollar and the dollar started the month on the upside as it bounced right from the yellow support line.

Similar to the daily gold chart that had a suspiciously looking bear flag, the weekly dollar chart had the same. In this case however this week's close back over the 50 week EMA cancels that notion and  MACD seems to be turning up, a crossover would be bullish for the dollar.

In order for some features to be enabled for the publishers (like me) at stockcharts they must achieve some unspecified level of followers and votes from stockcharts.com members. Members who are logged in to stockcharts.com with  their cookies can vote each day by clicking on the vote  button.

 Stockcharts.com members: You only need to click follow button once.  Clicking on follow will help as it will show  support and allow for some added features such as more charts. All of that being said, if you are a member of stock charts, please/span> follow us by clicking on the follow button Thanks a lot -

Our new Public Page address is    http://stockcharts.com/publiclists/1094617/tenpp

You can receive all of our tweets throughout the day by following. Just click on the image then follow - if you do not yet have a twitter account it is free. You can of course read them without an account. Did you know you can also get updates via SMS by texting FOLLOW stocktiger to 40404  in the United States. In other countries use your appropriate Twitter code. To stop receiving  simply text UNFOLLOW stocktiger to 40404./strong>p class="auto-style2">  

&  Our Facebook page is  facebook.com/stocktiger.net

Check the updated /strong> Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

This week's economic calendar for the USA.