Gold star  Last week we wrote that for the past 50 years or so all of the markets' gains in June have been made during the 1st week. That week has been great historically and this with the rally the markets earned a gold star. The new lows did decline this week but went up again Thursday and Friday. The market reversals from their lows since last Autumn have not gone back and tested those lows but went straight up from them. This current low has also not been tested and it may need to. This month usually  declines after the first week's rally. Even though Greece is a small county, how they handle their debt and if they stay or leave the EURO is important  as it brings up the question - who will be next in line? Spain is coming into focus and there are sure to be worries  that will   create volatility for the US markets.

Our stockcharts public page have been extremely useful in pointing out the market directional changes and even just using the market ETF's and Mechanical charts shown there.

Before we get to today's charts some  entertainment from the past.

Cirque du Soleil  "Circus of the Sun"  is based in Canada and has created  19 shows that have played in 271 countries on every continent except Antarctica. Many of you have  seen a live performance and for sure they are exciting and memorable. They are self-described as a "dramatic mix of circus arts and street entertainment." Each show is a synthesis of circus styles from around the world, with its own central theme and storyline. The shows employ approximately 4,000 people from over 40 countries and generate an estimated annual revenue exceeding US $810 million. The multiple permanent Las Vegas shows alone play to more than 9,000 people a night and over 90 million people have experienced Cirque worldwide. This performance La Nouba is at  Walt Disney World in Florida in their own permanent theater. Their set designs are colorful and costumes delightful. Some like to knock your socks off in performances. It seems that Cirque wants to knock off your feet as well. They create some fantastic acts then add to it even more to amaze and delight. Your have probably seen the diabolo, a spool which is tossed from a string between 2 sticks but couple that with gymnastics and tumbling and great music and  it is a really impressive  - starting at the 20 minute mark of this video. The high wire and trapeze performances are also absolutely top notch. Their site http://www.cirquedusoleil.com Twitter @Cirque

Note: If your Internet speed is not so great you can always download YouTube videos to watch off line. For Firefox just install add-ons for YouTube download.

The StockCharts Summer Sale and 10-day Free Trial

as Low as $11/month for US Real Time

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

Inventories at U.S. wholesalers increased in April as stockpiles of cars, machinery and other long-lasting goods grew. The inventories of U.S. wholesalers increased by 0.6% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $483.50 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.5% gain. Sales for wholesalers were up 1.1% in April to $415.02 billion. Wholesalers must stock the pipeline to keep up with end demand. Despite weak job creation and worries about Europe, personal spending has been a bright spot for the U.S. economy so far this year.

U.S. imports and exports both fell in April with the larger fall in imports leading to a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit for the month. According to Commerce Department figures released, the U.S. exported some $182.9 billion in goods and services while imports were tallied at $233 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $50.1 billion. While the resulting overall trade deficit of $50.1 billion is lower than the $52.6 billion recorded in March, it remains higher than the $49.3 billion deficit level predicted by most economists. Additionally, revisions to March figures put the trade deficit for that month at $52.6 billion, somewhat higher than the $51.8 billion initially reported. Total exports for April fell $1.5 billion from March levels, with overall import levels falling $4.1 billion.

New claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly more than expected for the week ending June 2, according to figures released by the Labor Department. New figures put the level of initial jobless claims at 377,000 for the week, on a seasonally adjusted basis, a drop of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level of 389,000. And while the previous week's figure was revised up from the 383,000 initially reported, the present week's data still falls below the 379,000 level expected by most economists. The four-week rolling average of new unemployment claims, a figure that reduces some of the week-to-week volatility in the reports, ticked up slightly, rising 1,750 to 377,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

Today's chart provides some long-term perspective on the price of a barrel of crude oil with a long-term chart of inflation-adjusted West Texas Intermediate Crude. Today's chart illustrates that most oil price spikes coincided with Middle East crises and often preceded or coincided with a US recession. The logic behind this is that a Middle East crisis can potentially disrupt an already tight oil supply and thereby drive crude oil prices higher. Also, rising oil / energy prices can, among other things, increase costs within the global economy’s supply / distribution chain and thereby contribute to inflation which can in turn encourage governments to halt or reduce any plans to stimulate the economy. As a result of a slowing global economy as well as increased global oil production, crude oil prices have declined over 20% since early May alone. 

This past week's  sectors.

This past week's indices  - 

The first week of June is typically one of the best weeks of the year and this proved true so far for this year. The monthly charts as a result show nice reversal hammer candles at the moment and for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 they have closed back over the Ctr., Bollinger bands. This looks quite bullish at the moment, but it is also true that June can give back much of those gains.

The 60 min. chart shows the consolidation through Monday and part of Tuesday with the big rise Wednesday and Thursday really just pushing up the Bollinger bands. They close at a possible breakout point as well so a place to watch if there is no gap up on Monday. 

The Dow has closed back over its 200 day EMA and 20 day moving average. As RSI and the Williams moved to buy after the lows. It is close to horizontal resistance and above that resistance at the 50 day EMA. 

Gaining 3.5% this week, the volume, though better than the previous two weeks, was only average over the longer term. At the moment this move only reverses the previous week's decline. 

The Dow dipped to a low  on Friday before 10 AM and rallied all day to close at the high. 

There are no futures charts in today's newsletter  because of travel we were not able to access the data until the after the futures markets had closed.

The transportation average gained 3% for the week, closing slightly over the 50 week EMA  but still within the same range as the previous three weeks. 

The utility average rallied strongly Wednesday then broke out Thursday with follow through on Friday. 

The NASDAQ summation index did cross back over its exponential moving average, but the lines are still close together so there is a chance of a whipsaw. 

The moving average of the number of new highs on NASDAQ, in blue, did rise during this week, though not dramatically so. 

In this longer-term view you see it moved back up to what was prior support. 

The NASDAQ weekly chart had dropped slightly below this parallel channel trendline and 50 week EMA, but recovered this week, though until it can close back over that 2887, this move will probably be thought of as only a countertrend bounce. 

The NASDAQ 60 minuteschart has a possible reverse head and shoulders forming and could continue with the right shoulder into Monday or Tuesday and if so watch for a move over the possible neckline shown.  

The ultra long for the NASDAQ 100 gave a buy signal on Tuesday and it has gone up about four points since then. We now also have the start of a possible trendline support in blue. 

The volatility index which had been over 26 closed on Friday just over 21. 

The semiconductor index gained over 5%, but it still closed under the 200 week EMA. 

The NYSE new highs minus new lows bounced from just under the purple dotted line support as the S&P 500, below, moved back over its support as well. 

Here the NYSE on top moving back above broken trendline, while the new highs minus new lows line is back to resistance. 

This week's rally boosted the percentage of stocks on the NYSE now trading over there 50 day average, to 27.8%. 

Our bullish percent indicator for the S&P 500 went to sell in March with a brief whipsaw a couple of times now more conviction went back to a buy. The last three times this happened it did not stay that way long.  

The lazy trading chart shows the technical reason for this bounce being that it had tested the broken trendline and horizontal support and for a test that at least needed to move back over. RSI on the weekly chart has yet to move back over 50. 

The daily S&P 500 mechanical chart  had some whip saws as well and is now back on a buy. 

The S&P 500 and has closed back over the 50 week moving average under this 1335 resistance. Above that it has the 50 day EMA and 1340. Note that on this daily chart the RSI crossed over 30 the first time in May and then as the price moved lower RSI formed positive divergence and crossed over a second time near the lows. 

This 60 min. chart of the S&P 500 shows its move above this descending parallel channel and a closer view of the overhead resistance at 1340. 

From our stockcharts public page The S&P 500 went long from the 15 min. chart on Tuesday and rallied about 45 points from there.  

The ultra long ETF for S&P showed RSI had  a cross over 30 on Monday, followed by in EMA crossover later. 

The Russell 2000 daily chart shows the little hammer candle from Monday, which we highlighted in the market wrap video and then the rally to Thursday's high had the 200 day EMA. The 50 day and 200 day are very close together and this may cause some additional volatility this week. 

The 60 min. Russell 2000 chart shows the strong resistance just overhead. 

The Russell 15 min. chart closed back over the top trendline of this triangle. 

This year-long chart of the banking index shows the bounce came in at the 61.8% retracement level from the the last November low. So far it does not show anything more than a bounce, however, the Williams has again crossed over the 80 line and MACD is also just crossing over. 

This just a closer view of the the BKX and its 20 day EMA at the current level. 

With the 30 year treasury bond prices rising the rates were getting too low and the bond prices pulled back a little this week. 

The emerging markets ETF  dropped to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and also this trendline in red and put in a small bounce on lower volume. 

The Dow Jones world markets also gained 2.8% this week, giving some validity to this trendline in purple. 

The London financial times index had been holding a support level for three weeks and rallied up 3% from there this week running into trendline resistance and 200 week EMA. 

The Canadian venture exchange is held back over this trendline and could be setting up for another  move. 

The news out of China had not been good in the past couple of weeks yet there was big rally the week before last. This turned out to just be a bounce and again it closed lower for the week with some possible support in testing the 2242. 

The commodity ETF dropped to within eight cents of the October low in  last week's session and rallied slightly from there this week, but closed under the horizontal resistance near 30. 

Crude oil up 1.5% for the week, but is under its 200 week EMA and also below the triangle resistance line. RSI had touched 30, but would be much more convincing if it stays a bit longer underneath that level. 

This closer weekly view of oil shows this small bounce remaining under the 200 week EMA. 

The natural gas ETF 30 min. chart shows the rally at the first part of the week reaching the  high level on the Williams indicator and then dropping back making lows for the week. 

Gold remains over the horizontal support line but it was unable to break over the 200 day EMA. It's moving averages are still in reverse order. 

A closer view shows that on Friday a small hammer candle formed and it closed over the trend line. 

The gold  ETF still under this longer-term parallel channel and under its Ctr., Bollinger band as well. 

The gold miners ETF, which had rallied the previous couple of weeks was basically flat, but did have some increased volume, which is not so good on a pullback. 

This 60 min. chart of GDX shows it at parallel channel line so the reason why this level is important short term. 

The 2-day pullback in GDX was met by a small rally on Friday. The close was back over the 50 day EMA but it was on lower volume. 

The mechanical trade for GDX is still on a buy with very nice gains but  note there is one red box and an additional one on close would send it back to a sell and or short.

The gold miners shown with the red and green line is still at the moment outperforming gold metal. 

The silver ETF bounced slightly this week, but has still not quite tested the trendline. It had been very close to horizontal support, but for longer-term it would be preferable if RSI could go back under 30 before  a larger move higher. 

Basically this is the same chart, but for  silver metal itself. You can see the 200 week EMA is at $25.55. 

Here we have silver ETF having bounced at the apex of this triangle and the uptrend line but the bounce has generally been on lower volume. 

The bounce though quite weak was enough to signal covering of shorts on SLV the and triggering longs on the mechanical chart. 

We highlighted Silver Wheaton as one to watch if it could break over its trendline as it had failed to hold the 20 day EMA in the past. It did rally from there and into the 50 day EMA. If   silver rallies we would  expect this to move back over the 50 day and could eventually run to the 200 day EMA. 

Copper did not participate in the market rally with a gain of one cent for the week.

Palladium moved 2.5% this week, but it was on significantly lower volume than the preceding week, which gives caution to a possible bear flag forming.

The US dollar spent the week in consolidation above the dotted trendline breakout. 

This 12 year US dollar chart shows the break above the trendline last month and so far the minor consolidation this month. 

And here an even longer-term US dollar view. 

Please  Note and help us expand our public page :

In order for some features to be enabled for the publishers (like me) at stockcharts they must achieve some unspecified level of followers and votes from stockcharts.com members. Members who are logged in to stockcharts.com with  their cookies can vote each day by clicking on the vote  button.

 Stockcharts.com members: You only need to click follow button once.  Clicking on follow will help as it will show  support and allow for some added features such as more charts. All of that being said, if you are a member of stock charts, please follow us by clicking on the follow button Thanks a lot -

Our new Public Page address is    http://stockcharts.com/publiclists/1094617/tenpp

You can receive all of our tweets throughout the day by following. Just click on the image then follow - if you do not yet have a twitter account it is free. You can of course read them without an account. Did you know you can also get updates via SMS by texting FOLLOW stocktiger to 40404  in the United States. In other countries use your appropriate Twitter code. To stop receiving  simply text UNFOLLOW stocktiger to 40404.

  Our Facebook page is  facebook.com/stocktiger.net

Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

This week's economic calendar for the USA.