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For Monday November 19, 2012


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Dow +45.93 at 12588.31, Nasdaq +16.19 at 2853.13, S&P +6.55 at 1359.88

 

Thanksgiving  holiday in the USA is on Thursday and the US market will be closed on Thursday and will close early at 1:00 p.m. on Friday.  Often this week ends well with the holiday spirit and all. During the day on Friday there will already be "guesses" on how well the shopping season is going and early next week we will have many reports about the season ahead. This past week saw new lows but all major indices closed still above the June lows so the bull market is still alive and so far has just been pulling back to find a stable price level. The fiscal cliff problem has to be resolved, at least enough to take it out of current worry for the markets. The US dollar has been rising but a pullback would be good for the equities. The Euro futures have held the break out trend line on this week's pullback, so they are in a good technical position to rally which would likely help equities as well. There are some positive divergences starting to show on indices though not so much yet for the Dow. The events around the Israeli - Hamas conflict could affect the US markets but at the moment we would not be surprised to see the start of a rally this week.

Before we get to the charts - a video.

George Winston US-born pianist  describes his compositions as 'rural folk piano', although his nature-inspired work has seen him described as a pioneer of new age music. The song Thanksgiving was on his album  "December" released 30 years ago in 1982 on Windham Hill Records and it helped make the label famous for its new age artists. William Ackerman was a founder of the label and well known for his guitar songs such as The Impending Death of the Virgin Spirit .The George Winston December album album has been updated since its original release with 2 added tracks. The album is still extremely popular during winter holidays.  Website http://www.georgewinston.com Contact via Twitter @gwinstonpiano

 

Jobless claims jumped to 439,000 in the week ended November 10th, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 376,000 from the 355,000 originally reported for the previous week. The much bigger than expected increase lifted jobless claims to their highest level since coming in at 464,000 in the week ended April 30, 2010. However, the data was distorted by the impact of Hurricane Sandy, with several states in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions reporting large increases due to the storm.                                  graphs  - RTTNews

The Labor Department said its producer price index fell by 0.2 percent in October following a 1.1 percent jump in September. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected producer prices to increase by 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices still edged down by 0.2 percent in October, marking the first drop since a 0.1 percent decrease in November of 2010. Core prices had also been expected to rise by 0.2 percent.

Inventories in the U.S. climbed at a slower pace than sales in September, indicating companies were heading into the disruptions caused by superstorm Sandy with little oversupply. The 0.7 percent increase in goods on hand followed a 0.6 percent gain in August, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. Sales at factories, wholesalers and retailers rose 1.4 percent, the biggest gain since March 2011, after advancing 0.6 percent the prior month.

Consumer prices in the U.S. saw a modest increase in the month of October, according to a report released by the Labor Department, with the price growth matching economist estimates. The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.1 percent in October after rising by 0.6 percent in each of the two previous months. The modest price increase came in line with the expectations of economists. Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in October after inching up by 0.1 percent in September. The core price growth also matched estimates.

Conditions for New York manufacturers declined at a modest pace in the month of November, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed in a report on Thursday, with the general business conditions index remaining negative for the fourth consecutive month. The report said the general business conditions index rose to a negative 5.2 in November from a negative 6.2 in October, although a negative reading indicates a continued contraction in regional manufacturing activity. Economists had expected the index to climb to a negative 5.0.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday that its index of regional manufacturing activity declined to -10.7, a five-month low. That's down from a reading of 5.7 in October, the first month of growth since April. The region includes New Jersey, which like New York was hit hardest by the storm.

Ongoing concern over the so-called 'fiscal cliff' has encouraged a pullback in stock prices. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the overall trend of the stock market (as measured by the Nasdaq Composite) since 2000. As today's chart illustrates, the post-financial crisis rally of the Nasdaq (which began in early 2009) was significant enough to make new post dot-com bust highs. However, the sharp selloff of the past two months has resulted in the Nasdaq breaking below its 3.5-year, upward sloping support trendline.  


 

This past week's   sectors.

 

This past week's indices  -   

On the monthly charts the Dow and the NASDAQ have closed slightly above the Ctr. Bollinger band while the S&P 500 is farther above. The Russell 2000 is a bit more bearish closing under its center band but all the majors are above their June lows thus keeping the bull market intact. Months ago oil was unable to go above its center band, though it remains above its low of the year.

On the 60 min. multi-index charts we see that by the close on Friday the price has reached the trendline resistance on each chart and while breakouts could be bought, if there is a gap up we may find a drop to test the trendline from above in which case a successful test can also be bought. 

The bearish aspect of the weekly Dow chart is that it is trading below its 200 week EMA and below the trendline that started last November. To give this a positive spin, we also saw a month  this spring, which traded below the 200 week EMA and that started the summer rally. 

In this Dow weekly view we see the retracement from the June low as it almost reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level this week and then bounced up from there. 

This Dow futures chart has a Fibonacci projection based on its first leg down into the end of October before a small rally. From there we had projections to the 127.2% and 161.8%. Although it dropped below the 161.8% this week it closed back above it Friday and also back inside this parallel channel. As RSI even this in this longer timeframe has moved back above 30,  it at least on Friday was a bullish sign. 

The transportation average lost 2.5% this week closing near the lower Bollinger band and horizontal support. If this breaks watch the 200 week EMA in red for further support. 

The NASDAQ summation index called the turn very near the top in September and at the moment it remains on a sell. 

We have two views of the moving average of new highs on the NASDAQ and in the top one we see that it is reached possible support at the green line. At the same time the NASDAQ price is also at former support levels. 

In this closer view we see the new highs are virtually at the level seen at the June lows. 

The NASDAQ had closed last week under the 50 week EMA and this week dropped below the horizontal support in green. A bit lower is the 38.2% retrace level from the summer lows of 2010. 

From the June low of this year the NASDAQ retraced down below the 78.6% level and rallied from there on Friday. As long as it keeps closing above the June lows the bull trend remains in force. 

This 60 min. NASDAQ chart shows the low on Friday did drop below the July support but then rallied slightly back above it. The histogram is now positive and there has been a short-term crossover of the MACD. 

The NASDAQ 100 futures is similar in that it too after dropping intraday below the 78.6% Fibonacci level closed back above it on Friday. The RSI which is had dropped below the 70 line in August is now under the 30 line. A movement back above would be bullish. 

The NASDAQ 100 ETF and our mechanical chart of it on the stockcharts public page went short in September and has made about 10% gain since then. 

The ultra NASDAQ 15 min. short term signal went to sell in early November and on Friday closed just under the descending trendline and note that the moving averages would easily cross positively with a small price increase. 

The volatility index had a high of 18.50 this week but closed down to 16.41. 

Apple dropped below its June low but then closed  back above it this week. It has a 61.8% retracement at $493 but as RSI is already under 30, this at least becomes a short-term rally buy on movement back over the 50% retracement line if RSI also goes back over 30. 

To its further support a suggestion of a likely bounce point is this view showing that from the low at 307 it had retraced back 50% which was also at the lower parallel channel support line as volume picked up at the end of the week. The indicators RSI and Williams have not yet crossed to a buy signal though many have entered long positions based on these nearby technical support areas. 

Google does not yet have a bullish chart however it is oversold with RSI under 30 and so far it has bounced from the 61.8% retracement level which has also been resistance in the past so now likely support. 

In this view of GOOG we also see its proximity to the 200 day EMA, closing Friday just one dollar below. 

Often in the past when we see the McClellan oscillator, the red and green line, drop below the Bollinger bands a rally begins. This happened on Friday and at that time the S&P shown in gold was also under the Bollinger band.  

On the top of the chart is the NYSE stuck between two trend lines at the moment. In the lower section we see the moving average of new highs minus new lows as it is nearing the low set last May. This suggests then a likely bounce coming soon. 

In this view of new highs minus new lows the level reached was even lower than that of June when we saw a rally begin. So a further suggestion that we may see one this week. 

At the moment 22% of stocks on the NYSE are trading over their 50 day moving average and this qualifies for levels from which rallies have begun. 

The S&P 500 bullish percent index remains on a sell as it has been since the latter part of October. 

The lazy trader's chart for the S&P 500 shifted to sell on the break below the 20 week moving average and with that criteria would not go back to buy until a cross back over. At the moment RSI is at similar levels it was in May prior to the low being reached during the start of the summer rally. The price level is also near the 1363 support and one may think of buying a move back above that support with some tighter stops. 

The S&P 500 with the  Fibonacci levels from the June low showing the bounce on Friday at the 61.8% support. RSI has slightly crossed back over the 30 line, though no buy yet from the other indicators. 

On the weekly S&P 500 we see that 61.8% level with the trendline just a bit higher. 

Last week we showed the average true range of the S&P 500, in green, as it had broken above the downtrend line which coincided with the fall of the index itself. The ATR is nearing some former resistance and although it could turn down at any time, if it does go to this level, watch there also for possible reversals. 

At the close this week 23% of stocks on the S&P 500 were trading over their 50 day moving average. In the past rallies have come from this level, though a little bit lower might be even more bullish. 

The 60 min. S&P 500 with its various support levels which had been broken and worth watching on a move back up for possible resistance areas. 

This 15 min. S&P 500 chart with the trendline from November 6, and the break above it on Friday. 

Our mechanical 15 min. S&P 500 is very short term so prone to whipsaws but on Friday there was a buy later in the day. 

The S&P 500 futures dropped to the 161.8% Fibonacci projection which was also just below this trendline. With the bounce on Friday it moved back above both of those. 

The ultra short for the S&P 500 had been long since November 7 but one could keep a tight stop as the distance between the moving averages is now wider than normal so a crossover would happen less quickly on a reversal. 

As you must well know by now, the Russell 2000 traders are particularly keen on trading near former technical levels. 765 was twice support and on Friday though it dropped lower by 1.5 points it did rally from there as RSI went back over 30. Note that RSI dropped under 70 just prior to the high reached in September. This is been an excellent moneymaker if trading in this index. 

In this view of the Russell 2000 the bounce on Friday was above the 78.6% retrace and a continuation of it will take it back into resistance of that broken trendline and the 61.8% level. 

This 60 min. view of the Russell 2000 shows more clearly the bounce on Friday and why it was at that level. 

This mechanical chart of the Russell shows that up movement started early in the day just after 11 AM and with a correction afternoon began again after 2 PM and ran to the close. 

The Russell 2000 3-X ETF bounced at its 61.8% retrace of this timeframe. 

The Value Line arithmetic index did not quite dip under 30  RSI but still bounced on Friday. We would be more bullish if this bounce came from being closer to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and if RSI had gone under 30. 

The 30 year treasury bond price remains at levels just two points under the high in August. 

The banking index dropped under the 200 day EMA this week and after having tested the 50% retrace closed back above the 200 day EMA. RSI had come close to 30 but not quite under it on the move back up. 

The retail sector ETF lost 0.57% this week but remains above this year's breakout level. 

The Dow Jones world stock index dropped quickly as it fell below the 38 week moving average and the top triangular trendline. 

They FTSE lost big, 2.84% this week and is clearly back inside this triangle with support at the 200 week EMA and then lower at the bottom trendline. 

The Shanghai stock exchange also gave up 2.63% this week, though it has closed above the low of the year. 

Our commodity tracking ETF was virtually unchanged this week still above the support area in red. 

Crude oil gained 1% this week, but was basically a reversal of the previous week as it sits below horizontal and trendline resistance. 

Natural gas held the top parallel channel trend line after breaking over it weeks ago. This week it tested the recent highs and a break out would take it to the 200-week EMA in red.

Natural gas futures still bullish with next higher resistance at 3.87

After last week's decent move up from the 20 day moving average iIt gave up about 1% this week but on lower volume. 

On the daily view of the gold is see was a gradual drop though it remains above a small support area at that 38.2% retrace level. 

On this chart gold is in gold while the gold miners ETF is in red and green. Note how greatly the gold mining stocks underperformed gold as  they took a big hit this week. 

Here is the gold miners index showing that 8% drop this week, though it is still above this longer-term trendline. 

Our mechanical short for the gold miners profeted from this drop as it was short at the time. 

The silver ETF lost 1% this week, but a minor correction from the previous week's gain. 

Silver did not have enough of a movement even with the previous week's gain to shift the mechanical chart as it remains on a sell. 

Palladium outperformed this week closing back above its 20 day moving average with increased volume. 

Copper had a very small range again and it closed unchanged for the week sitting at the 200 day 200 week EMA and trendline. 

The euro bounced from the 20 week moving average this week, though it was not a significant movement. 

The euro futures went down to test the previously broken trendline and although RSI had not become terribly oversold in this 2-day-per-bar chart, it is often an automatic buy when the test is successful as a stop then goes close underneath. 

For the month the  US dollar has gained 1.45%. 

On the daily chart you see the dollar sitting right at resistance at the dotted line. 

 

 

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Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

This week's economic calendar for the USA. 

Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

GGlobal Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here/strong>/a> so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

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If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here hhttp://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

 

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

 

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Diminuendo  - an ambient journey for late autumn. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

 

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.   There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

CLGX   already on the watch list  ands has 20-day MA just overhead - but over  $24.52

ABMD   Over $14.3

CPB    Over $36.77


DY   Over $15.50 or $15.75 then gap at $16.13

MYGN    Over $30.65

RP    Over $19.19

 

For your eyes and mind 

Photograph  by Hai Trinh Xuan

 

Photograph by Marvi Khan

 

 

Photograph by  Netushki

 

Photograph by Kasia Mycatherina Pietraszko

 

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week. 

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