begins Today is the vernal equinox a time when the day and night are about the same length.
It also to most in the northern hemispheres
signals a change of weather to come. Maybe the stock market
weather will change also as it has been quite
overcast for a while. If the nuclear reactor
situation in Japan is resolved in a good way that
will help and if the USA refrains from increasing its war in
Libya that may also help. The market was prime for a pullback and it may have come even without the
and tragedy in Japan and news events that have come about
but they in this case sure were triggers to let
it unfold. We continue to find many high side break out candidates every day and that would not be happening if the market were declining in a broad way.
Even with the market decline, many stocks still see higher volume advances. Friday BSFT from the watch list triggereed and at its high of the day was up over $7.00
Labor Department showed that jobless claims fell
16,000 to 385,000 in the week ended March 15th
from the previous week’s downwardly revised
average of 393,250. Economists had expected
claims to slip to 385,000 from the 397,000
claims originally reported for the previous
week. The four-week average, which smooths
out the volatility, fell 7,000 to 386,250.
Meanwhile, continuing claims calculated with a
week’s lag fell 80,000 in the week ended March
5th to 3.71 million.
Housing starts in the U.S. fell by much more
than expected in February following an
unexpectedly strong jump in January. According
to figures released by the Commerce Department,
479,000 new privately owned housing buildings
were started in February, 22.5 percent below the
revised January figure of 618,000.
Consumer prices in the U.S. rose by slightly
more than anticipated in the month of February,
according to a report released by the Labor
Department, with the price growth largely due to
another jump in energy prices. The report showed
that the consumer price index rose by 0.5
percent in February after rising by 0.4 percent
in each of the two previous months. Economists
had been expecting consumer prices to increase
by 0.4 percent once again. Excluding the jump in
energy prices as well as a moderate increase in
food prices, the core consumer price index rose
by 0.2 percent in February, matching the
increase seen in January. Core prices had been
expected to edge up by 0.1 percent.
The US National Association of Home Builders'
Housing Market Index rose, as expected, to a
March reading of 17 from the previous post at
16. The NAHB's release highlights its Chief
Economist David Crowe: "prevailing indicators
portend some improvement in the overall economy,
which should generate modest housing market
gains later this year."
The top and bottom sectors of the week.
This week's indices
mostly lost ground except for gold and oil.
This 60-minute major indices chart shows the Fibonacci retracement lines from the low this week. Also note the relationship to the Bollinger bands.
Dow chart after the three day drop in February
rallied back to 12,283, where we have placed a
Fibonacci projection using the measured move as
the 100% line and it projected a possible drop
on the Dow, 11,570 which was the 161.8% level. Intraday the Dow dipped below this level though closed above it, and this was the start of the bounce we saw on Thursday and Friday. It closed Friday just under
the 23.6% longer-term Fibonacci level, which is also the 38.2% shorter term level. Also overhead
we see the 50 day EMA at 11,945. In the indicator section of the chart you will note that the break above the trendline on the
ATR happened at the start of this decline, but all of our usual indicators
gave the same signal.
Monday is the apex of this broken triangle and sometimes that corresponds with greater volatility. We will see if that happens this time. You'll note on this 60 min chart that when the candles dropped below the Bollinger bands the index rallied and when it ran above
This 15 min chart shows the run in this time frame to 50% level, and the dip back to 38.2%, which then became support.
A break then of either side could be traded, but not necessarily a gap opening on either side.
This 5 min chart just giving closer detail, the type that is helpful if you're doing very short term futures trading.
lost over 1% this week but the low of the week was in line with weeks in the past
so it does not allow a possible move back up.
This daily chart, however, is not yet very incuraging as it still closed below the 20 and 50 day averages, though there was some increase in volume on Friday. The 20 day moving average also is just slightly under the 50 day EMA which is bearish.
The utility index bounced before it got to the November low. This could be a bear flag, but watch the indicators for a possible
buy signal if it moves to the upside.
The NASDAQ 100 has been weak for a month and if
it rallies back up to the broken trendline that is also the 50 day EMA, it may be shorted there
by some. On the other hand, if it drops to the 38% Fibonacci and or the 200 day EMA it would likely be a buying point.
The monthly NASDAQ chart is not pretty at the moment, though the indicators have not yet crossed.
The weekly chart shows this drop almost to the
38% Fibonacci line near possible support, with
stronger support at the 50% line and then the
uptrend line if it fell that far.
This 60 min NASDAQ chart showing the overhead resistance first at the blue line
then the gap near 2720 and of course later at the broken trendline. This triangle also has its apex on Monday.
The blue line is a moving average of the number of new highs on the NASDAQ, and it
has dropped significantly, though not to levels we saw in July and September
where major bounces came.
The NASDAQ summation index continued its
decline. Even with the small bounce at the end
of the week it is still on sell as it is a bit
slower to respond.
The VIX reached levels not seen since early July as nuclear and political fears increased.
From its big rally leg starting in August,
the semiconductor index pulled back to its 38.2% retracement and some support
there. It would have further support at the 50% area which is also the 50 day EMA.
The New York stock exchange in the top section of this chart fell below its trendline and has yet to rally back up to it. In the second area of the chart we have the moving average of the new highs minus the new lows and it closed very close to the level from August where we started the multi-month rally.
The percentage of stocks on the
NYSE trading over their 50 day moving average had dropped to 31% before this latest brief rally.
We have seen bounces near this area before in July and October of of 2009..
On the S&P 500 the percentage of stocks over the 50 day moving average is now 38% having bounced from the former bounce point level.
This 60 min chart of the S&P 500 shows the drop to and
a bit below the 161.8% projection level. That bounce came right at the apex of the traingle shown. We see a parallel channel broken trendline just overhead, which will give some resistance.
This daily S&P 500 chart shows the close under the 38.2% retracement, but we do
see the Williams indicator had dropped below the 80 line and is now above
so we will watch for possible crossover of the MACD and other possible positive signs from other indicators.
The rally from the lows did increase the bullish percentage index but no buy signal yet and that the 20 day EMA is now at 1299
This daily S&P 500 chart is from a while back maybe from
Prostreet or another chat room participant and it shows a pitchfork and the bounce at the center
fork this week.
This 60 min S&P 500 chart gives closer detail of what we have mentioned above.
When the Dow had rallied towards its 50% retracement line
it pulled back to its 38.2% and held whereas this S&P shows the close below that level.
Earlier in the week the Russell 2000 had wiped out its gains for February, but closed a bit higher. In its move from 2009 the
RSI has gone from under 30 but it is not yet gone to 70 or above as it usually does to complete a cycle. So this suggests that we have not yet seen a top.
The small caps decline
has actually been less than that of the other major indexes and so far it has bounced at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and stayed above
this year's low set in January.
The 5 min Russell chart in this time frame rallied back up to
38.2% retrace and resistance and you'll note further resistance at the 50% retrace near 800
then at the 61.8% at 807.
30 min Russell trading helper chart after having some
whipsaws in late February and early March has been on sale though the moving averages are now touching.
This situation will be resolved this week.
The banking index closed still above its 50 day EMA after having come within $0.60 of the 200 day EMA on the pullback.
Overhead resistance is also at the trendline shown and support back at the 200 day.
The 10 year treasury yields dropped again this week, closing at an interest rate of 3.27%
retail holders dropped 2.6% this week and has support at 9923 trendline and 50 day EMA.
The FTSE also dropped below its 200 day EMA this week and it rallied to close just slightly above its.
Its low for the week was higher than its low
reached at the end of November. The RSI which was under 30 has gone above, as there were also buy signals from the Williams indicator so would watch the other two for confirmation.
The Canadian Venture index dropped and found support
and had a reversal and continued to move higher three more days. This also could have resistance at its 50 day EMA
and some may also be looking to short at that area though there have been several buy signals
This commodity ETF dropped lower in the week, but recovered closing back over its 200 day EMA.
Oil was also lower this week
but ended up closing up eight cents from the week before still under resistance with its trading being affected by the
war in Libya.
Natural gas had gone near the lower support area and rallied 7.8% this week, and perhaps will again test the upper descending trend line.
A break there could take it to first $5.42 the 200 week EMA.
The commitment of traders report from the last Tuesday shows that commercial traders decreased their short position by 11,000 contracts, while increasing their long contracts by over 15,000. Meanwhile, the large speculators decreased their longs and increased their shorts. The commercial traders are still over two to one short, but they did take some money off of that table.
Gold as seen on this weekly chart had dipped almost down to the trendline, but not quite and ended up flat for the week
The daily gold chart shows the last three days trying to make up for the one day decline, but it has not recovered fully. It is also not at all conclusive that this is more than a bounce from the 50 day EMA.
The double long, gold ETF did end up the one week decline with a hammer. So it may play out to the upside, but once again the volume was light.
Renko chart later makes it pretty clear to follow, but on this candle chart you see why it has been a bit of a whipsaw lately, as this
has had many gaps one side and another. This week
it found support at the 200 day EMA.
Here is the Renko chart and we have had one
green box. If we add another or if our top
indicator goes over-100 level and the other parameters are met,
this will switch from short to long. We have been having some choppy times
since February and this can create whipsaw and even though this is a mechanical system,
when we have some good profits, as in this case there were several dollars worth on this last short position, you can always take some profits, which would help mitigate any whipsaws.
P&F chart about as last week still a bearish one
with a price objective of $50.76.
On the daily ratio chart of gold miners to gold metal the miners continue to underperform actually breaking slightly below a trendline this week.
Silver found support this week and rallied on Friday so traders
may now place more value at that support area
Palladium continued its decline, dropping an additional 4.48% for the week having dipped almost to the 38.2% retracement level. Note that the 50% retracement level is also now near the 50 day EMA in case we drop further.
Platinum dropped over 3% for the week, closing just at trendline support having touched the 50 day EMA.
Copper on this weekly chart, as it again tested the 408 support level and ended the week 3% higher than last week.
This shows that copper was also testing the 20 week moving average
and so far it held though the indicators being a bit slow to respond, have not given
any real buy signals.
Euro index continued to climb, closing at the top Bollinger band with the trading channel trendline just overhead. It is now again in overbought territory on the top indicator Williams, though
RSI is not this time. Still, we would think there will be strong resistance at this trendline and we may see a reversal in this and therefore a bounce in the dollar
in the weeks ahead.
As the euro has been rising then this ETF short for the euro has been falling and is now just under the support area
from November so
a possible bounce at this level
This daily US dollar chart shows the low this week was nine cents lower than that
at the November low, but it bounced at
this double double bottom a few cents.
This weekly US dollar
chart shows further support of the low at 74.23 though if that does not hold
we could still look to the measured move blue line.
This closer view dollar chart showing the support hit this week just slightly under the lower Bollinger band.
We have talked of Wound
Management Technologies, and their focus
the distribution of their unique, patented
collagen product, CellerateRX®. The stock
has risen about 50% since our first mention but
we would suppose that the stock will find its true base price,
as the current volume is light, once the company announces its quarterly and year end results.
Last year that was about April 15 so figure it may be the same this year.
A CellerateRX® infomercial has now started in test markets
and there are online sales as well. The company started a YouTube page
and the first video is from a
television news program with a focus on treatment for wounds and the long term
benefits, including speed of healing and cost
savings of collagen treatment using CellerateRX®.
Youtube page to learn about
this wound care treatment. An the online
Product Page for another
video and on how order.
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Companies reporting earnings on Monday - Check
on all overnight holds.
This week's economic calendar
for the USA.
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This weekend's transmission of
of Space is named
gliding over the tipping point between winter and spring. You have until 3AM EST to listen for
free on their site or check your local
PBS radio station for their schedule.
watch list We add many stocks to it each trading day
SAFM Over $47.00 -
MKC Over $48.95
MAKO Over $21.45 -
HRL Over $27.87
BKCC Continuation over
HCP Over $38.10 - $38.20
ALSK Over $10.50
USU Over $4.72
For your eyes and mind
Photograph by Yury Gulyaev
Photograph by Flop
That's a full lid for
today - have a great week.
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