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For Tuesday January 22, 2013 

 

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Dow
 
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Dow +53.68 at 13649.70, Nasdaq -1.29 at 3134.71, S&P +5.04 at 1485.98

 

Inauguration.  is a formal beginning or introduction or formal induction into office and for 2nd term presidents it seems a strange practice as they already are the president and vice president.  Today however the president and vice president officially were sworn in and begin a second term. The event continues on Monday as a party for Washington DC.  Again it was a very good week for the market as the rally continued. We had 18 more watch list stock hit their buy points this week after 20 the week before and 39 the week before that. Pretty great way to start off the new year.   The volume this week was not great but it did increase and especially on Thursday and Friday. The number of new highs also increased and the mid and small caps continue to lead and that too, is bullish.  This week the corporate earnings continue and watched on the tech side will be AAPL, GOOG, IBM and NFLX. Airlines include LUV and DAL while some household names like PG JNJ, SBUX and MCD will report.

For all of your holds it is a good idea to consult the  Earnings Calendar

Martin Luther King Jr. day
At the movie theaters now are two films concerning slavery. Django Unchained by Quentin Tarantino depicts the brutal treatment of slaves in the period 2 years before the US civil war and Lincoln from director Steven Spielberg tells the story of President Lincoln and his successful fight to get a yes vote for the thirteenth amendment to emancipate the slaves. The Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution outlaws slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime. It was passed by the Senate on April 8, 1864, by the House on January 31, 1865, and adopted on December 6, 1865.

Last year on this day we featured a video that presented Martin Luther King's I have a Dream speech in a unique way that appealed to many around the world who had not known the speech. We noticed this very contemporary dance mix tribute done last year Chris Dave - I Have A Dream (Radio edit).  The speech was given 50 years ago and was so meaningful that its words today even fill clubs and concerts The original speech from August 23, 1963  is here.

Before we get to the  charts - a  music video.  

 

Vitaliy Vladasovich Grachyov better knows as Vitas is a singer-songwriter of Russian decent but was born in Latvia. He is very well known especially for his 5-octive range and incredible falsetto voice. This song is Opera No. 2 and was released as a single in 2001 and much of his rise in worldwide recognition is because of the sharing of his work on the Internet. A more recent  music video recent highlighting his vocal skills. This song he wrote when he was 14 and it became a popular song  Translation  is here Last May we featured Jessica Sanchez and Joshua Ledet from American Idol as they really blew everyone away with their performances. The judges were saying that they had never seen any singers on any stage better. Can you image if Vitas had performed this on the show as an unknown - he would have brought the house down.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by much more than anticipated in the week ended January 12th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000.

New residential construction in the U.S. increased by far more than expected in the month of December, the Commerce Department revealed in a report. The Commerce Department said housing starts jumped 12.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 954,000 in December from the revised November estimate of 851,000.

The homebuilder sentiment index rose to 47 in December from a downwardly revised reading of 46 for November. The index is now at the highest level since April 2006 and inching closer to the ‘50’ level separating expanding and contracting activity. The present sales conditions index and the future sales expectations index rose to 51 each, while the index measuring prospective buyer traffic edged up 1 point to 36.

Consumer prices in the U.S. came in unchanged in the month of December, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in December after falling by 0.3 percent in November. The latest figures matched economist estimates. Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index edged up by 0.1 percent for the second straight month. The modest increase in core prices also came in line with estimates. 

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after having risen 1.0 percent in November when production rebounded in the industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy in late October. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent in December following a gain of 1.3 percent in November; production edged up at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter.  

For some further perspective on the current state of the stock market, today's chart presents the long-term trend of the S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks). As the chart illustrates, the S&P 400 rallied from late 2002 into the mid-2007 and then gave most of that back during the financial crisis. However, the S&P 400 rebounded well by recouping all losses incurred during the financial crisis and making new record highs in a mere two years. Since mid-2011, the S&P 400 has traded in a rather choppy fashion which has helped define its current wedge-shaped trading range (see the red and green trendlines). More recently, the S&P 400 has embarked on a sharp rally which has allowed it to break above resistance (see red line) and make new all-time record highs.

After This past week's  sectors.

 

This past week's indices  -   

Sydney Australia DJ team  Flight Facilities twitter  @flightfac   in 2010 had a really nice hit called Crave You featuring Giselle - They  now  have a new single  - Clair De Lune feat. Christine Hoberg. I really appreciate songs that are repetitive and build over the length of the song.

 

The Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and crude oil all closed at the high for the month with the NASDAQ not far from it. The Russell is at new all-time highs and while the S&P 400 midcaps led this week, the Russell was the second largest gaining index. Gold gained over 1% this week but is still down for the month.

On the 60 min. major index charts we see how tight the Bollinger bands had become midweek and that is why we expected the expansion at the end of the week. Technically in this position they still have some upside potential on Monday before some needed consolidation a bit later on.

On the Dow weekly chart we see the high on Friday was within 12 points of the 2012 high and the volume was better than it has been in a month.

The volume expansion is quite noticeable on the daily chart as it increased on Thursday and Friday as it pushed very close to the horizontal resistance. The RSI has not yet gone over 70 so we have room to run in that regard.

On this, 2-day-per-bar chart we see that if it can close above the 2012 high it will have  a very good chance of reaching the 127.2% Fibonacci projection above 14,000. This also would take the index up to the top line of this parallel channel.

On the Dow futures from the low near January 8 you see the several times it created a bullish flag or top trendline that gave an opportunity to buy on that break. On Friday we posted this chart showing the setup of the bull flag shown in the top and the potential that it would breakout before the close, which turned out to be the case.

The utility average, which had dropped after testing and slightly breaking over the 200 day EMA, bounced back up on Friday from the other moving averages to close right at resistance on a bit higher volume. A breakout here and above  465 could start a longer move back up to the top trendline.

The transportation average had another very nice week after hinting of a breakout the previous week. It gained over 2% this week closing at the highs.

The NASDAQ summation continues on the buy side for the NASDAQ and note that it's levels are where we had a negative crossover late last September.

The moving average of the number of new highs on the NASDAQ shows a significant advance which is bullish but the levels they have reached are also levels where we have, twice in 2012, seen pullbacks.

There is now a larger distance between the moving average of new 52-week highs on the NASDAQ above the NASDAQ 100 price than we have seen on this chart throughout 2012.

The NASDAQ remains slightly above this blue trendline but we have not seen a big the expansion above it. The NASDAQ has not performed as well as the other induces.

The NASDAQ is still within this up trending parallel channel on the 60 min. chart where the top line will coincide with horizontal resistance at 3196.

That level mentioned above is the highest from 2012 and slightly over that is the 161.8% Fibonacci projection based on the shorter-term first wave move.

The NASDAQ 100 mechanical chart which had shifted back to a buy at the beginning of the year, continues higher.

The NASDAQ 100 futures sits below the 127.2% projection which is resistance and a close over could take it to the 161.8% with some resistance at about 2775.

The volatility index remains calm as it closed under 13.

The semiconductor index has remained  bullish since its initial close over the 50 week EMA and then its breakout above the green trendline three weeks ago and it now is approaching the upper trendline near 420.

The NYSE new highs minus new lows remains elevated which is bullish and it is has backed off from its extreme highs which is also a good thing.

Over 88% of stocks on the NYSE  are now trading over their 50 day moving average, which shows good strength in the market but also brings caution as from these elevated levels, we do in time get declines.

The S&P 500 bullish percent indicator as been on a buy since the third week of November gaining about 100 points.

The lazy trading S&P 500 had a whipsaw in December but  still has gained over 50 points from the last buy point.

In the previous week we had a very slight break above resistance for the S&P 500 and this week's chart shows the 1% gain moving above this resistance on a bit higher volume.

On the daily chart. The first days of the week were only sideways maintaining support at the dotted line before the break above on Thursday.

On the 60 min. chart we see a parallel channel about 20 points in width it has maintained since breaking back inside at the start of the year.

On this 15 min. chart view we see a trendline top not far above and this channel which is slightly converging.

In our 2-day-per-bar chart note that the S&P 500 has closed over this breakout line so we now has at least a 60% chance of running up to the 127.2% at 1511. If it continues from there, at the moment the 161.8% is at the top parallel channel trendline.

On the mechanical 15 min. chart as the S&P 500 was in a very tight range at this first part of the week we had many little whipsaws leading to a nice expansion long on Thursday and then again on Friday after a morning dip.

This 5 min. chart shows the low was reached about noon on Friday and from there about a 10 point move into the close

The S&P 500 had its own parallel channel closing right at the top line on Friday.

On Thursday morning we showed this parallel channel of the SPY and how the 161.8% intersected the top channel trendline. It turns out that on Thursday it made that target exactly, pulled back on Friday, then moved back up to it by the close.

From our stockcharts.com public page this 60 min. SPY chart with the top trendline just overhead.

The Russell 2000 actually had its largest gain on Tuesday with consolidation on Wednesday and some minor moves Thursday and Friday.

Longer-term the Russell 2000 has better than even odds of reaching our third wave projection at the top parallel channel trendline in 161.8% above 900.

This 60 min. Russell 2000 just shows at the moment, the movement upward is holding close to the top channel trendline and one may use the red moving average as a cautionary stop area.

Also on our public page is this live 15 min. chart showing the crossover buy of the Russell at the beginning of the year capturing some very significant gains.

The 3-X ETF for the Russell 2000 broke above this parallel channel running up to and slightly over this very short term Fibonacci projection level.

The value line arithmetic index which has been at all-time highs went even higher this week.

The 30 year treasury bond prices ran back up close to the 20 day moving average but may be forming a third bear flag at the moment.

The a longer-term view of the bank index as it is moving up towards horizontal resistance from the high of 2011 and then the 161.8% Fibonacci projection level.

The banking index has been consolidating right under this horizontal potential breakout point.

The retail sector has been very strong since late summer and even with its pullback, starting in October, it never even dropped as far as its breakout point. This week it made new levels above resistance, gaining 2.24%.

The emerging markets ETF has been consolidating the last couple of weeks after its breakout above the $44 resistance.

The Dow Jones world index moved up .5% and is clearly above resistance heading towards the highs of 2011.

The London FTSE also broke out above 2011 highs adding over .5% this week.

The Shanghai index in the previous week had pulled back after it's five week run and this week bounced from the 50 week EMA to run up over 3%.

Our commodity tracking ETF gained 1.7% and closed just at short term resistance shown in green.

The longer-term view of crude oil as it nears the top trendline with increasing volume, though not spectacular.

On the weekly chart it clearly has moved over this shorter-term trendline with the top Bollinger band now at $98.

The natural gas ETF had successfully tested its August lows just over $17 and has now moved up over the 50 day EMA with 200 day at $21. The RSI and Williams indicator pretty much marked the lows.

The UNG RSI buy signal came first before the final low was reached and then again at that low and it has been a very nice move from there and closed above the horizontal dotted line resistance on Friday.

The 3-X ETF for natural gas at the same time had bounced at its trendline where we had buys in April and in June and has moved up over 20% from there. If it continues and does as well as the last three moves it could run up above $36.

Gold advanced this week and on Thursday and moved over the 50 day EMA but closed back under it on Friday.

The GLD weekly chart gaining over 1% may have moved enough to rule out the bear flag that looked like it may be forming. To confirm that you would like to see a move over the Ctr. Bollinger band now at 166.

The gold miners ETF was down .5% this week on lower volume.

The mechanical GDX remained  on a sell unchanged from last week.

Silver gained 4.5% this week closing back over the 50 week EMA.

On the shorter timeframe chart we see the move took it right into a possible resistance area at this 38.2% Fibonacci level.

The S LV mechanical chart is back on a buy after being on a sell since December

Copper was unchanged this week.

Palladium has been very strong since the end of October and volume picked up  this week as it broke out into new levels gaining over 3%.

The euro was almost unchanged this week closing just pennies below its 200 week EMA

The close on the euro futures still keeps it over the trendline it broke above recently.

The US dollar is also been a rather uninteresting lately hanging around its 50 week and 200 week EMAs.

In order for some features to be enabled for the publishers (like me) at stockcharts they must achieve some unspecified level of followers and votes from stockcharts.com members. Members who are logged in to stockcharts.com with  their cookies can vote each day by clicking on the vote  button.

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Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

This week's economic calendar for the USA. 

Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

Global Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

Or for more information fill in form - click below/p>

 

If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here http://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

 

Brad Formsma creator of I Like Giving  ... a champagne to inspire generous living. This video explains  how the site I Like Giving http://ilikegiving.com/ came about. It is a young campaign and a worthwhile one that should gain some attention so share the site with others.   You can contact them also via twitter a@_ilikegiving 

 

This is one of the examples of another giving - I Like Adoption - The boy in the video at the piano with no arms is George Dennehy and he has his own site http://www.georgedennehy.com where he has a video section with his musical performances. His twitter is @ThatArmlessGuy  People do remarkable things

 

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

 

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Atmospheric Conditions  - subtle winter skyscapes. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

 

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.   There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

EW   Over $68.50

FOE Over $4.60

OPEN Over $54.32

PLAB  Over $6.21

RNDY   Over $5.12

TDS    Over $23.80

XRAY    Over $41.00

For your eyes and mind 

Photograph by Alexander Nagibin

 

Photograph by Gennady Shin 

 

 

Photograph by Denis Bodrov

 

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week. 

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Check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

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