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For Monday April 23, 2012


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Dow +65.16 at 13029.26, Nasdaq -7.11 at 3000.45, S&P +1.61 at 1378.53

 

Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act SOPA You probably remember January 17 when some of the most popular websites like Google and Wikipedia shut their front doors or put up full page notices to protest the Stop Online Piracy Act, a Congressional bill that would have censored certain websites. It was a success and at least for the time being that bill was withdrawn due to the massive protest. Congress is at it again and this time they waited until the last minute to put a bill on the calendar so not give much time for a protest. The new bill that could be voted on this week is Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act CISPA. This would allow the creation of  backdoor wiretaps to be able to monitor and collect communications, including huge amounts of personal data like your text messages and emails if they claim it was for cyber security purposes. Under this bill and Sen. John McCain’s SECURE IT Act, there are almost no restrictions on what information can be spied upon and how it can be used. That means a company like Google, Facebook, Twitter, or AT&T could intercept your emails and text messages, send copies to one another and to the government, and modify those communications or prevent them from reaching their destination if it fits into their plan to stop “cybersecurity” threats.  Please see the Electronic Frontier Foundation website for information and enter your zip code to find your Representative to send a note to stop prevent this erosion of you privacy and civil liberties.

Except for the NASDAQ the major indices were up last week. We are in earnings season and there were good reports from MSFT, GE and MCD that helped the market even while AAPL declined and it carries the greatest weight on any stock in either the NASDAQ of S&P 500.  There were less new lows last week but we did not see any real increase in new highs. So while the market did advance there was no enthusiasm about it that you want to see to suggest continued strength. Lacking that the market needs some stronger outside stimulus as there seems to be not enough good news to create big buying or enough bad news to spark selling. This is the last trading week of the month so by Wednesday we may see some end-of-month window dressing.

Thanks to all who use Twitter as we hit the 5,000 follower mark this week.   

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With expectations for economic growth catching up with data, Europe in focus once again, and geopolitical concerns boosting oil prices, some analysts have opined that the U.S. economy is headed for another growth slowdown like we saw last summer, or even a brand new recession. Others argue that this time is different, in particular that surprisingly positive jobs growth will continue to drive the recovery. The strong correlation between the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and market performance suggests that sinking investor expectations could mean trouble for the markets. But is this really going to be a repeat of last Spring? According to this chart, maybe not—or maybe not yet. Setting the high points of the index this year and last year against one another demonstrates that data has continually beat expectations for a far longer period than it did last time around. This could suggest that economic growth is more robust than it was last year, or it could simply mean that markets may still dive but not at the same rate they did last time around.  

 

Before we get to today's charts some  entertainment.  

 

Sir Paul McCartney has been giving us music for 50 years and now at age 69 he is still doing so. Recently he released a new album named Kisses on the Bottom, an album of covers of traditional pop music plus 2 of his original songs. One of the originals  is named My Valentine featuring Eric Clapton. He made a music video of it using Natalie Portman  natalieportman.com and Johnny Depp @j0hnnydepp Your can contact Sir Paul on Twitter  @paulmccartney  

New unemployment claims fell somewhat for the second week in April, but revised data for the previous week put the level of initial jobless claims significantly higher than most economists had predicted. According to the Department of Labor, new unemployment claims for the week ending April 14, came in at a seasonally adjusted level of 386,000.That marks a 2,000 decline from the previous week's revised level of 388,000 new unemployment claims. Most economists had expected the level of new claims to fall from even the initially reported figure to a level of 365,000 for the week ending April 14.

New housing construction in the U.S. dipped unexpectedly in March, but an equally unexpected jump in building permits offers hope for the future of the beleaguered housing market. According to figures released by the Commerce Department, new privately-owned housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000, a 5.8 percent drop from February levels.

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in March for the second-straight month, a sign that the housing market's long-awaited recovery may be flagging. Existing-home sales decreased 2.6% in March from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The results were worse than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected home sales to rise by 0.4% on a monthly basis from the previously reported February figure to an annual rate of 4.61 million. Even with the monthly decline, however, the first three months of 2012 were the strongest start to the year for existing home sales since 2007. March's sales were 5.2% above the same month last year.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index fell to 8.5 from 12.5 in March, worse than economists' expectations for a modest decline to 12.0, according to a Reuters poll. It was the lowest level since January. New orders slipped to 2.7 from 3.3. Any reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing sector. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

The index of U.S. leading indicators rose for a sixth month in March, indicating the world’s largest economy will maintain its expansion. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.3 percent after a 0.7 percent gain in February that was the biggest in 11 months, the New York- based group said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a rise of 0.2 percent in March.

Today's chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today's chart, a 'massive' bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow's inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the recent financial crisis). Today's chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a somewhat middle of the road path and has followed the post dot-com bust rally of the Nasdaq that began back in 2002 fairly closely -- especially over the past year. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the market would have to work its way higher during much of the remainder of 2012.

This past week's  sectors.

 

This past week's indices  - 

 

 

On the monthly major index charts the Dow now has the smallest range between the opening of the month and the close on Friday and it  is the most bullish appearing of the majors. The NASDAQ had dropped a bit more as it had risen higher on the recent breakout in the  previous two months. The S&P 500 is only sideways though the Russell is the weakest of the group. Gold is still in its third month of decline, but it would be a typical type pullback for it to move back up in the fourth month.

Last week on the 60 min. chart we showed the five waves down into April 10 and one could look at that entire move as an "A" down and the next leg back up to the top Bollinger bands as a "B" and depending on the outcome of the current move, if it drops further that could be a "C" to finish that leg. By Tuesday on the 60 min. chart the moves had gone to the top Bollinger bands then fell to the lower bands and rise to the center band's where they  found resistance. 

The weekly Dow chart the week before had closed right at the support line and this week moved up from it closing up 1.4%. 

The Dow could continue higher to the top of this parallel channel or even breakout from it. However if it breaks below, there is the possibility that it will begin a measured move down which could take it closer to 12,550 

The 10 min. renko chart from Friday showing the upward move ended just after noon with the attempted rally after 2PM  with the close almost back to the lows of the day. 

On the Dow futures chart you see the small little double bottom test and the possibility of a small head and shoulders pattern developing. 

On the shorter time frame Dow futures we see that rally beginning Thursday from the lower triangle trendline just under the 61.8% retracement and the move back up on Friday to the R1 pivot. If you trade futures, watch these charts on our live sharing page open during market hours.

The transportation average being range bound for several weeks. 

The daily utility average moved up Monday and Tuesday, retraced Wednesday and Thursday and rallied back up to the trendline on Friday. 

The NASDAQ summation index remains on a sell at the close. 

The NASDAQ weekly shows the sideways movement this week closing down only 10 points. 

The 60 min. NASDAQ shows a brief cross over and back of the moving averages during the week and the additional parallel line now below. 

The NASDAQ 100 ETF did break above the parallel channel but its moving averages remain on a sell 

The NASDAQ 100 futures longer term chart just showing the close not far off the low of the month though RSI is still above 50. 

The mechanical chart for the Qs remains on a sell. 

The volatility index closed at 17.44 showing not too much "worry" in the market. 

The semi conductor index lost 2.7% for the week closing almost at the lowest  for the week 

The NYSE moved down below the dotted support line but regained it by the close on Friday. The moving average of the number of new highs minus new lows did not break support and also moved back up a bit by the end of the week  

43% of all stocks on the NYSE are trading above their 50 day moving average. So stuck in between oversold and overbought - called neutral. 

The S&P 500 lazy chart  almost broken below the RSI trendline but the price level never quite made it to it's horizontal support before this latest rebound. 

On our other popular set of EMAs  the S&P 500 had a sell crossover  at the break of the trendline but using the typical 13 – 34 EMA crossover they are close but have not crossed over for a sell signal as yet. 

The 60 min. S&P 500 chart has some pretty clearly defined support and resistance trendlines that can be used for trading decisions short term. 

This view shows those lines on a 15 min. chart. You can buy support or sell a breakdown of it or the opposite at resistance. Oversold RSIs often lead to buying profits and overbought levels set up the sells. 

Longer term the S&P 500 futures had not quite made it to the 127.2% Fibonacci projection and this current consolidation may turn out to be a bear flag with one more drop ahead. 

The shorter-term S&P 500 futures made for very nice technical trades in the last couple of weeks just using simple trendlines for price and RSI reversals. 

This is the ultra short for the S&P 500. As the S&P fell this rose and you can see it is in a pretty clearly defined parallel channel with additional trendline below.

The small caps have been weaker than the large caps shown here with the Russell 2000 60 min. chart. Its also in a very likely tradable triangle at the moment. 

Here a 15 min. Russell view with a break to the upside meeting resistance perhaps again at 816 then 820. On the downside support is  at 791 and then 783. 

The banking index has been pulling back for three days after a two-day bounce and could test the $47 50-day EMA and a break below there could  find support  near 46. 

If that 46 level did not hold there is the 200 day EMA near recent support of 44. 

The 30 year bond prices continued to rise while  pushing up the top Bollinger band as it goes. 

And the 10 year treasury, after its big bounce recently is consolidating and could make a run to the top of the parallel channel once again. 

After three weeks of pulling back the retail ETF is making a recovery - up 1.5% this week 

The London financial times index gained 2% moving up over its 50 week EMA. 

Especially with gold mining stocks not feeling any love, the Canadian venture exchange lost an additional 4% closing under its up trend line and slightly under horizontal support. If it moves lower it may find support at the downtrend line closer to 1300. Watch the RSI in that case for move under and then over 30. 

The Shanghai stock exchange moving up is bullish for most markets and it is now in its third week of advance closing up 2% with resistance at the 50 week EMA. 

Our commodity ETF trying to hold on to the 50 week EMA and any bounce could send it back to resistance at the 200 week EMA. 

Crude oil futures had bounced near the 61.8% retrace and this parallel channel. 

Again natural gas was down  by 2.7% and now touching the lower parallel channel trendline with RSI at 28. This suggests at least a small bounce coming soon so watch for positive histogram, a cross over in MACD and  movement over 30 with RSI. 

BOIL is at the moment a fairly thin trading ETF for natural gas. The volume on Friday just under 400,000 shares. This 60 min. chart shows the slight bounce on Thursday and Friday. If trading these trendline breaks on bounces just know that you may have to take some small losses until it eventually does find a bottom which could then lead to a very substantial gain over time. 

Gold futures again held the 61.8% retrace so it is just putting in time until it can break one way or the other. 

The gold miners remain in a retreat though it has been a holding over its $45 April low. If this does break above the trendline be cautious with your GDX short. If you're using mechanical trading it does not mean you cannot use protective stops. 

And here the mechanical trading gold miners which has been short for about the last 10 points with one brief reversal. 

Compared to its previous volatility, silver has remains a very tight range trading and holding above support near $31. 

The silver ETF 16 min. chart with a nice triangle at the moment can be used for short term scalps  to begin with. 

The mechanical system remains on a short as it has been since late February. 

Two weeks ago copper had dropped under its 50 week EMA and up trend line and this week put in a small 1.2% bounce. 

Palladium however put in a nice almost 4% rally as it had bounced the week before right at the parallel channel trendline. It closed this week slightly back above the 20 week MA. 

The euro futures longer term chart is holding above horizontal support and is again back above the downtrend line just under the 38.2% retrace. 

Meanwhile the US dollar is under resistance with a minor pullback this week. 

 

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Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

Political content - skip if not interested.

Last summer we noticed that the media had pretty much decided that Mitt Romney would be the Republican presidential candidate. It was though it was already a done deal. We know that unfortunately the majority of American voters make up their minds on who to vote for from advertising, sound bites or who they like the looks of. It is embarrassing that this is so but this is why we continue to see such an erosion of our civil liberties. The difference between President Obama and Mitt Romney on most important issue is tiny - as it was between President Bush and President Obama. The one person who is not a flip flopper and who really ahs sound plans to fix the economy and mend the horrible foreign relations is Dr. Ron Paul.

Ron Paul  Ron Paul speaking at Texas A&M in Rudder Theater on April 11, 2012. His speech starts at 8:30 minutes into the video.  

 

Be a model of peace and economic reform.

Ron Paul for President 

The only logical and honest choice for 2012 to help fix the broken governmental system and stop the reckless wars that all the other candidates want to continue.

  


This week's economic calendar for the USA. 
 


 

Highlighting some winners from the watch list this week: 

Nice gain for VRSN.

Tuesday through Friday were good for WG after the flag break out the week before.  

SSYS short term shown aftre thsi daily chart.

On our video we spoke of the 3D printing sector and SSYS and DDD. The next morning SSYS made a great set up shown on our live page at $45.50 and then again at $47.50 and $49.50 and all  did great.  

We saw thsi on our live chart page a a moring gainer and spotted thsi break out line and posted then it ran 3 more points.  

CXW  was nice each day

CYN hit a short term high and is pulling back after Tuesday's buy.

GPS ran the last 4 days.

Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

Global Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

Or for more information fill in form - click below

 

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here http://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Floating Waves - an anti-gravity journey in ambient space. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.  Al the additions today are from the S&P 500. There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

If you like coffee - a lot - here is a coffee maker that does does it all and can be built into your counter top. Can also be contoled with an iPhone app.

ASNA  Over about $21.50 or short under 50-day

BPO  Over $18.18

DPZ   Bounce continuation

EXPR   Short under $23.40 or break out over trend line

GDI    Over trend at about $64.50

HAIN   Back over $46.50

HXL   Over $26.71 or $27.00

GWW   Over $221.84

For your eyes and mind  - 

 

Photograph by Dimitri Stanyakin

 

 

Photograph by Mogo

 

 

 

Photograph by Caras Ionut

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week. 

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