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For Monday February 25, 2013 

 

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Dow
 
Nasdaq
     
     Dow +119.95 at 14000.57, Nasdaq +30.33 at 3161.82, S&P +13.18 at 1515.60

Window dressing time. It does not always work but as we get towards the end of the month and often when there have been decent gains for the month, we see fund managers or others step in and buy to help them demonstrate higher paper gains for the month. The markets had been in short term overbought territory so a pullback was looked forward to but this week's drop on higher volume and the rebound on Friday with lesser volume does give reason for caution. There has not been an increase of new lows and new highs are pretty good still so we may see a test of the recent highs which could go along with this last week of trading for February. The March trading month does not begin until Friday but seasonally it is pretty good month and I personally have found it one of my favorites so will see if it can be the case this year. Mike Burk informs us that Since 1928 the SPX has been up 61% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.4%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 52% of the time with an average gain of 0.2%. The best March ever for the SPX was 2009 (+13.8%) the worst 1938 (-12.5%).

(I am back from my trip and will go back for surgery in the later part of March so should be able to publish as usual until then.)

 

Before we get to the  charts - a  dance video.  

 

Marquese Scott also known as Nonstop, is a YouTube personality and hip hop and dubstep street dancer whose work has been used in music videos, TV shows, advertisements, and live performances. He is signed with Xcel Talent Agency and is part of the dance crew Remote Kontrol. (from WikiPedia) His YouTube channels include WHZGUD and WHZGUD2.  His videos have had over 150 million views and his channels also feature other dancers such as iGlide and BluPrintso so be sure to check them out. Tweet him with your comments and thanks  @officialwhzgud

 

Here is a performance to the Adele song, Set Fire To The Rain.  

 

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits jumped 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, though it remains at a level that suggests slow but steady improvement in the job market. The Labor Department said Thursday that the four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 8,000 to 360,750, the highest in six weeks. A department spokesman said heavy snowstorms in the Northeast didn’t affect the total.

U.S. existing home sales edged up in January from the previous month, indicating further recovery of the property market, a leading U.S. industry group reported on Thursday. Existing home sales, which tally completed transactions for single-family houses, townhouses and condominiums, rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million units last month from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in December 2012, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a report. The level was 9.1 percent higher than the 4.51 million units registered in January 2012, said the NAR.  

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged for the second consecutive month in January, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The report said energy prices dropped 1.7 percent last month and gasoline prices fell 3 percent while food costs remained flat. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the so-called "core" inflation index rose 0.3 percent in January.  

On Wednesday, minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent meeting suggested the central bank may slow or stop buying bonds sooner than expected. The Fed has used quantitative easing, or QE, since 2008 in a bid to stimulate the economy. The policy, which involves expanding the Fed's balance sheet to buy bonds, has been credited with pushing money into the stock market, and its withdrawal would remove a ballast for the markets.  

For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the overall trend of the stock market (as measured by the Nasdaq Composite) since 2000. As today's chart illustrates, the post-financial crisis rally (which began in early 2009) has been significant enough to have the Nasdaq surpass its credit bubble highs of late 2007. In addition, the latest leg of the post-financial crisis rally has the Nasdaq at levels not seen in over 12 years. As today's chart illustrates, however, the Nasdaq is fast approaching resistance (see red line) of its three-year uptrend channel. 

 This past week's  sectors.

 

This past week's indices  -   

For the week the Dow was up while the other major indices were down. On the monthly chart we see all these stock indices are higher. Oil which had hit resistance, dropped further this week down to the center Bollinger band and oil is getting closer to the lower Bollinger band.

After the Dow breakout move five weeks ago and then the small increase in the  following week we have had three weeks of just sideways consolidation.

The market dip on Thursday took the Dow under the 20 day moving average and it was on increased volume. Friday saw renewed buying and the close just 58 points below the high of the week.

So the Dow still sits just under the first of the upper parallel channels and slightly under the 127.2% Fibonacci projection level. RSI on this timeframe has dropped back under 70 which is only a warning so far as it could go back over on an advance.

The utility average dropped  both Wednesday and Thursday but recovered to close at a new multi-month closing high.

The transportation average had a wider range than it had seen in a couple of weeks and it closed flat this week. 

The NASDAQ was the worst performing of the majors this week and on the NASDAQ summation index we do have a negative crossover. Sometimes when this happens it produces a whipsaw at the start so it could go back to a long, but it for sure is cautionary.

The moving average of new 52-week  highs for the NASDAQ has not change much and that is encouraging so far.

For the week the NASDAQ lost about 1% closing just about at the blue ascending trendline.

In this tighter view we see the NAZDAQ had dropped below the trendline and closed slightly back over it. A deeper correction could take it down to either support somewhere near 3080 or to actually fill that gap near the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level.

This NASDAQ chart shows the latest move took the NASDAQ up basically to the 161.8% Fibonacci level and then it pulled back to the 127.2% and closed above that on Friday.

The NASDAQ 100 mechanical charts did go from long to short on the dip this week.

The volatility index went above 15 this week but closed at just over 14.

The semiconductor index which had broken out two weeks ago actually made a new high for this year, pulled back quite a bit and then regained half of those losses.

For the NYSE the new highs minus new lows, dipped way back under the lower Bollinger band near levels of other bounces but not into deeply oversold territory at the lower dotted line.

Whenever we see drops of the  percentage of stocks on the NYSE  below the top red line this is a caution as often it does lead to a decent pullback.

Last week on our bullish percent S&P 500 chart we showed an orange arrow as  the moving average gave a quick cautionary sell and recovered. This week there is a red arrow as the bullish percent issued a sell. At the same time the index had gone under the 20 day EMA and recovered on Friday.

The line on the lazy chart is now red, but with this system the technical sell would not come until a move under the 20 week moving average.

The S&P 500 had dropped both Wednesday and Thursday taking it almost to horizontal support before the 13 point rally on Friday taking it   back over the 20 day moving average. The negative side of Friday's action was that the volume was lower than the previous two day selloff.

The close on Friday was however back over the 127.2% Fibonacci level and a breakout could take it to the top parallel channel line at the 161.8% level.

Clearly the S&P 500 dropped below this parallel channel, but closed just slightly back inside. Note how the Williams indicator and the RSI gave buys at the low this week.

On this 15 min. chart you see the drop below trendline support for a second automatic sell and then the bounce  basically at the little bottom test as RSI and Williams went back over triggering buys.

Also from our stockcharts public page there was a buy signal with stochastics crossover and RSI crossover and then later as the 13 period EMA moved above the 34 period EMA.

The mechanical short term charts for the S&P also switched back to buy on Friday.

The Russell 2000 had exceeded the measured move target which was also near the 127.2% and the top parallel channel line. It ran almost to the 161.8% before the pullback this week.

Friday's bounce took the Russell 2000 back to test the broken trendline from the underside so it would be important for it to break back over that line as if not this spot  it is often used as a automatic place to put on shorts.

And on the 60 min. chart we see the clear trendline break, which is for sure a warning sign.

The 3-X ETF for the Russell 2000 had gone to the 161.8% Fibonacci level and on the pullback this week held support at the 127.2%. The RSI in this timeframe is just slightly under 70.

The retail sector has held up just fine and remains in this flagging pattern.

The banking sector dropped to support by Thursday and then had a small bounce on Friday but closed under the 20 day moving average.

The emerging  market ETF  closed under the $44 support and if it continues lower watch the 50 week EMA near 4170.

The Dow Jones world index actually in its third week of decline after running into horizontal resistance a few weeks ago.

The London financial times index up very slightly for the week.

The Shanghai stock exchange started its move in December of last year and had a very strong rally  right up to horizontal resistance and  pulled back quickly from there as the chart gave a very clear sell signals. For support watch the 50 day EMA and just under that the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Are commodity tracking ETF had a big decline this week losing 3%. closing up and over the 50 week EMA.

Oil with its 3% loss this week still managing to close over the 50 week EMA and the formerly broken trendline. Watch for support in those areas.

Natural gas was up just under 5% this week closing back over the 50 week EMA but under the 20 week moving average.

The standard ETF for natural gas remains under its moving averages but above lows from the autumn of 2012 and early 2013.

Last week gold closed right at the 20 month moving average and this week it is clearly below and it may find support at the 2012 low of 1526 as if that does not hold look for a test of trendline support near the 50 months EMA.

Gold had dropped below this rough parallel channel and rallied back up to it by Friday but the rally was on less volume than the decline.

The longer-term GLD chart shows the price is now under the lower Bollinger band. Some rally could come  but a test of last years lows is quite likely.

On this GLD chart we see the break of the triangle and some possible support at the 50% Fibonacci level followed by  the 61.8% If RSI could drop below 30 and then move over it, it may be an interesting buy point.

The gold miners ETF closed under the lows last visited in 2010 and 2012. RSI has now gone under 30 so a bounce will be coming but watch for indication.

Our mechanical GDX short trade has done very well this year, which is so typical of this system. That is, we have some very large moves followed by a period of many little whipsaws. Overall the trade in this system has been every good.

The silver SLV clearly dropped below this longer term up trendline and under also the $28.61 support level. The price everyone sees now is near $25 support.

In the short term this SLV chart shows some possible support from the trendline shown.

Our mechanical had gone back to short this month and remains so on Friday.

Copper pulled back rather dramatically losing the 5% this week but closed above this pink trendline.

But Palladium also lost its leader as it pullback on increased volume which makes it a very cautious metal at the moment.

The euro which had not held the horizontal support nor the 200 week EMA dropped below the trendline also this week, though it is still above the 20 week moving average and 50 week EMA.

The US dollar for the month is up 2.87% after its bounce at the lower triangle support.

The weekly dollar chart showing it above both moving averages perhaps heading to test the top trendline.

The daily chart shows the Dow currently right at some former resistance levels  as RSI is also above 70.

 

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Check the updated Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

This week's economic calendar for the USA. 

Volatility mean opportunity for futures trading and it is free to try it out.

Global Futures has many platforms available for trading futures and Forex but a very popular one is Global Zen Trader as it is very customizable with  exceled built in  charting that can be used free floating.  We made a short video about it giving a very general overview, and we have links on that page to several other videos about this platform. You can try it for free using live streaming data in order to see if future's trading is right for you..  link here so give it a watch and try it out.

zen tradeer

 

Futures and  Forex trading

Global Futures continues to offer excellent service and a variety of trading platforms such as the new Global Zen Trader which includes charts. They have a special offer  for StockTiger readers - 20 commission free contracts.

To try futures trading you may sign up for a free simulated account that uses live streaming data. Several platforms to chose from. Futures can be volatile so great opportunities  for wide swings. If you call them ask for Trenton and mention StockTiger. Click on the Demo image below to sign up.

Or for more information fill in form - click below/p>

 

If you trade ETFs our large list of them is here http://stocktiger.net/etf/etf.php  A list of the standard, 2X and 3X ETFs from Proshares.  

When any of you sign up for a new stockcharts.com accounts there is a space to put in a referral name on that form. If you enter stocktiger@stocktiger.net they give us credit. Thanks!

 

This weekend's transmission of Hearts of Space is named  Ambient Lanois  - a steamy, swampy, slidey Daniel Lanois retrospective. You have until 3AM EST today to listen for free on their site or check your local PBS radio station for their schedule.  

 

New additions to our watch list we add new ones each day.   There are too many so pick the ones you like the best and set alerts. We also show the list and current prices and level to watch on our live page each day during market hours so it is very easy to follow,   You can also check progress on our Public Stockcharts pages.

HMSY    Over $28.54 - $29.14

HRS   Over $48.20

PANW   Over $57.65

TXN  Over $34.29

VSH   Over $13.90

 

For your eyes and mind  - 

Photograph by Grigoriev Maxim

 

Photograph by Lubov Sepevanovna 

 

 

Photograph by PHO BOS

 

That's a full lid for today - have a great week.

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Check the Earnings Calendar on all overnight holds.

 

One characteristic of ones that fit the general theme is that at the very end the last second is almost in slow motion. Something a bit insane about almost 50,000 of these being made in the last weeks.

 

 

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